A couple of days ago, we talked about the fact that the United States, it turns out, knew absolutely everything
about the Russian invasion of Ukraine – moreover, back in October last year.
I was even wondering: how is it that possible that a country ran by special services
can be so unprepared for war and have such leaks of information?
Yesterday, The Washington Post released the second part of their investigation,
which seems to fully answer these questions.
Now we know how the FSB prepared for the war in Ukraine and how the Russian leadership prepared for it.
Let's talk about this today and what it can tell us about Putin's intelligence services
and Putin's government in general.
And what it all means for our country.
Before I start, I'll make one caveat.
Part of the Washington Post material is based on Ukrainian intelligence data and revelations of Ukrainian officials.
But the newspaper published them only after it was verified by American intelligence.
And we have no reason not to believe it, after what we learned the other day.
I will briefly say for those who for some reason did not watch our previous video, watch it, by the way.
The United States knew everything back in October.
From the fact that Putin is preparing a war, to a real plan of the invasion.
And even a plan in detail: how, where, and where
What the Americans didn't know was that Putin's audacious, as they called it, plan for an invasion was doomed to failure.
The Americans did not understand that Russia would attack so stupidly and recklessly.
It seemed unprepared and random, without even warning the command staff right before the attack.
Throwing the columns of the National Guard with batons in front of the supply vehicles of the troops.
We knew that this was due to Putin's underestimation of Ukraine, Ukrainians and President Zelensky personally.
We have said many times that a dictator who is in power for too long is forced to be in an information bubble.
Which he formed for himself, when he left next to him only those who say what he wants to hear,
and generally represent the homeland in a way that Yuri Shevchuk advises against representing.
The homeland is not the president's ass to be kissed all the time.
Now we know exactly how Putin's opinion about Ukraine was formed and how wrong the FSB was in its assessments.
The Washington Post quotes an American official describing the FSB miscalculation as accurately as possible:
“The Russians were a mile wrong. It was fundamental.»
So, let's be brief. Back in 2019, the FSB began to increase the staff of its agents and recruiters in Ukraine.
It has more than quintupled in a year.
They bought the favor of local officials, recruited them, paid them for information.
Here Putin is just like in a well-known meme: handing out money to Russians to support during covid? No-no.
Giving money to random Ukrainian officials so that they swear allegiance to Russia,
and then betray Putin at the beginning of the war – yes, wrap more.
Moreover, it is not clear how many the FSB actually recruited, and how many –
only on paper, for reporting in red folders.
These people were supposed to provide Putin with Kyiv in three days, flowers under the feet of Russian soldiers,
units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine going over to the side of Russia and other charms of Blitzkrieg.
And also – reliable information about the state of affairs in Ukraine.
But something went wrong, that's bad luck.
Half of the FSB agents, it seems, simply took money from Putin, but were not going to do anything,
and the other half endlessly fed all sorts of fables convenient for FSB reporting.
And it seems that there people to recruit.
The Security Service of Ukraine, like the FSB, is still full of people from the KGB.
And many of them, like one well-known former intelligence officer, yearn for the «great Soviet Union»
Rich ground for poaching to your side.
And it seems that they managed to lure someone away, because after the war started,
Zelensky had to organize personnel purges in the SBU and even remove his friend,
the head of the Service, Ivan Bakanov, from his post.
Perhaps it is Putin's agents in the SBU who are to blame for the fact that Kherson was taken so quickly.
Otherwise, the Russian troops would not have had a single victory.
But what our geopolitician wanted was obviously not the Kherson People's Republic.
We also know from the previous investigation that he wanted two-thirds of all Ukraine!
Viktor Medvedchuk told the FSB officers and Putin personally the most tales.
It was he who predicted a quick fall for the Zelensky government.
It is not surprising that Putin has cooled towards his former «godfather»
and is somehow in no hurry to redeem from captivity.
In the FSB itself, they prepared very seriously for the lightning capture of Kyiv.
Right before the start of the war, they began to organize new safe houses in the capital –
you have to live somewhere when Kyiv «returns»
Well, it didn't work, happens.
The FSB officers who went to Kyiv to observe the imminent occupation even wished each other a pleasant trip.
Obviously, the lie of the authorities that in Ukraine everyone was just waiting
for the Russian liberators to come, extended to ordinary personnel as well.
The FSB has spent years spying in Ukraine, billions of dollars.
But in the end, they couldn’t even create some kind of illusion of pro-Russian sentiment,
not to mention some kind of collapse of Zelensky’s power or a demarche of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The most surprising thing is that, judging by the Washington Post sources,
the secret services knew the real mood in Ukraine.
They had data from closed polls, which, right before the war, showed that 84% of Ukrainians would consider
any movement of Russian troops across their territory an occupation,
and 48% were ready to resist this with weapons in their hands.
And right at the same time, having this data in hand, knowing that half of the intelligence network
is not real, the FSB reports to Putin
that everything is ready for the invasion and rolls out as many as two versions of the occupation government!
Why two? Who knows why, probably, just because one red folder that day did not look good on the table.
One version of the government was put in charge of Yanukovych, who was taken out of the closet and brought to Minsk.
And the second option consisted of former members of the Party of Regions, who were in the LDNR.
In general, the appearance of vigorous activity was outstanding.
As a result, Putin believed that he could effectively talk about the historical truth on TV
and of demilitarization and denazification
while the troops were marching victoriously towards Kyiv.
And then call on the Armed Forces of Ukraine to take power into their own hands.
and all sorts of nonsense.
In short, to disgrace himself in the face of the whole world, looking at the reports of the FSB,
where everything, from the list of agents to the mood of Ukrainians, is a lie for the authorities and money laundering.
Yes, everyone was wrong before the start of the war.
The Americans – when even having all these data they still did not believe in the victory of Ukraine
and therefore did not supply it with eavy weapons before the invasion began.
Ukrainians – when they underestimated the threat.
They did not expect a Wehrmacht-style frontal offensive in 1941.
But most of all, the Russian leadership and the FSB in particular were mistaken in their calculations.
They were waiting for someone to come out and give them the keys to Kyiv.
That Zelensky will run away, and if not, then he will be quickly arrested or executed.
Even in the SBU, some believed that this would be the case, and that every second
in the special service would turn out to be an agent of the Kremlin. But no.
The President of Ukraine was right when he refused to leave the capital despite the persuasion of the United States.
He believed that chaos would then begin in the country
and, it seems, prevented it by remaining in the capital even before the assault.
And those whom Putin has been bribing for years in Ukraine have simply realized
that Russia's plan does not work from the very beginning, and that it is better to follow the example of a strong leader.
And not to go over to the side of Russia.
The attentive viewer should now have an obvious question.
How did it happen that security officers lied to Putin for so many years?
And how did those same red folders with nonsense inside lead us to war?
To answer these questions, we need to take a step back and turn to the history of the Soviet special services.
After Stalin's death, as a result of a great administrative massacre
at the pinnacle of Soviet power, two things happened.
Firstly, it dawned on the Soviet leaders that no matter how bad, even if poorly implemented,
the country must have a collective leadership.
They realized that the country should be ruled by the Politburo, not the leader.
Yes, this Politburo will have a leader, the de facto head of state, but until the very end of the system,
the leaders will not have that much power, the state will not be built around these leaders.
Secondly, there cannot be a punitive super-department, with unlimited powers,
with real political power, occupied with everything and not controlled by anyone,
which was the NKVD, and after the MGB under Stalin.
Even these people of worker-peasant origin, with a very poor education, without any democratic and liberal views,
realized that that for a quarter of a century they survived by some miracle, expecting arrest every day,
but under any new Stalin and any new Beria, they are provided with a one-way ticket to the Butovo polygon.
The creation in 1954 of the KGB under the Council of Ministers of the USSR is the result
of the separation of all functions of the secret police,
from intelligence and counterintelligence to the protection of top officials, into a separate department.
The department, which will no longer have political power – now it is subordinate to the party elite,
will not have law enforcement functions, will not have its own army – the internal troops remained
in the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
That is why it is incorrect to compare the KGB with today's FSB.
For all the disgust of the first department, its creation is the result
of the normalization of state administration after Stalin.
When the Chekists fell under the control of the political authorities, they were taken under control by it,
and ceased to be a monopoly operator of violence, that is, the only real power.
The FSB of Putin's time is a different department, it is the restoration of the Stalinist NKVD.
The FSB deals with everything: intelligence and counterintelligence, fight against terrorism,
fight against corruption, economic and information security.
It is in charge of the border service and border troops.
And in addition to the widest list of articles of the Criminal Code,
which are directly under their jurisdiction, the FSB can investigate any criminal case that it itself has revealed.
Any other law enforcement agency in Russia has weaknesses:
armed units were withdrawn from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Russian Guard does not have
its own investigation, an investigative committee was separated from the prosecutor's office,
leaving only supervision and state prosecution, the investigative committee only has an investigation,
but there is no power component.
Everyone lives in this terrible balance, they depend on each other, compete, fight, imprison.
All the time of his power, Putin carefully monitors that no one emerges from this cannibalism as the final winner,
so that no one becomes too strong, regularly transferring powers and resources between departments.
Except FSB. The FSB has everything.
There is no control over them, any wars with them end with the sending of the toughest generals
to the Lefortovo pre-trial detention center with the speed of a cork of champagne and without any sentimentality.
The “seconded” FSB officers are in the leadership of all ministries and departments,
in all regional governments and mayor's offices of large cities, in all state corporations
and the most important private companies.
Only the FSB and no one else can simultaneously pursue a fraud case against investor Michael Calvey,
prosecute scientists for treason, and Minister Ulyukayev for a bribe, and at the same time
engage in the political destabilization of Ukraine, while prosecuting activists in Russia along the way.
The FSB is engaged in the same cannibalism, the constant struggle for resources and powers,
characteristic of the power apparatus.
But unlike everyone else, this struggle goes only inside.
Only between the services of the FSB itself.
From the outside, this organization is completely impenetrable and invincible.
That is why there are no questions about why the FSB is so decomposed,
why this service for years not only lied to Putin, but literally created an alternative reality
around him with complete impunity.
Yes, the rest of the security forces are also completely free from public control,
there is no independent parliament above them, the media and public opinion are harmless to them.
But the rest at least keep an eye on each other: they are waiting for a reason to imprison
a competitor, to take away their powers, personnel and budgets.
The FSB, on the other hand, is stewing in its own juice; over Putin's 20 years,
it has become a separate vertical of power that controls everyone, but is not subordinate to anyone.
Putin restored what the Soviet apparatchiks, who had taken a sip of grief under Stalin,
hurried to get rid of as soon as the opportunity arose – from the power super-department.
Which is not only the main instrument of his power, but on which he himself depends entirely.
From the political control of the FSB, from the repressions of the FSB, from information supplied by whom?
Also FSB.
Information that no one can verify, from an agency that is not controlled by anyone
and that will not bear any responsibility for its mistake.
Yes, specific employees and even generals can bear responsibility: Chekists joyfully imprison each other.
But from the point of view of the department, nothing changes:
it still fights for powers and budgets, imprisoned generals are replaced by their deputies.
But they will continue to produce the same lies.
With the war came the darkest paradox.
On the one hand, the decision to start the war was made on the basis of false information from the FSB.
Literally in the first hundred hours of the invasion, it became clear to everyone
that there was no intelligence network capable of overthrowing the government in Ukraine,
that the Chekists’ political analytics were based on what Putin himself wanted to hear,
that all the work of intelligence and analysis was a pure lie.
It seems that the FSB should fall out of favor,
that unprecedented repressions should fall on the department,
and budgets and powers should be confiscated.
Because it is clear even to the blind that all this is either lost or stolen.
On the other hand, the degree of dependence of Putin and his regime on the FSB
has skyrocketed since the beginning of the war.
Control of the occupied territories, filtration camps, the fight against the underground, sabotage, counterintelligence –
All these are the core functions of the FSB and no one will do it for them.
Inside Russia: spying on the political and business elite, looking for conspiracies,
combating anti-war activity, securing repression.
Outside of Russia: penetration into emigrant circles, search for their connections with those who remained,
corruption and intimidation of Western politicians and officials.
Anyone who has ruled at least someone in life sees a huge problem here: the division completely failed,
did not name a single letter and did not guess the word, but the result was not fail, but success.
In a situation where it is necessary to control hundreds of thousands and millions of people in the occupied territories,
when people with combat experience and in a bad mood are returning to the country,
when citizens are getting more and more tired of the war,
when a conspiracy is quite real in the immediate environment – it is then that the FSB
becomes the only real political power.
All the rest are no longer needed.
Who needs cunning political technologists from the presidential apparatus,
some kind of tricks in holding elections.
Who needs all this multi-layered system of lies and deceit in domestic politics,
like e-voting and other nonsense,
when the country is at war and whoever is not with us goes to jail?
What is the general function of civil political management now?
Under Putin, exactly what the Soviet authorities fled from happened.
First, there was a leader.
A leader who does not rely on allies and does not depend on them.
The leader around whom the state is built.
Secondly, leaning on the Chekists, this leader became their complete hostage.
A hostage to such an extent that their failure, a failure that led to dire consequences,
only led to the expansion of the political power of the Chekists to absolute power.
The main thing we learned from this Washington Post article is that Putin has not only created a monster,
he has created a monster that he cannot control.
Is the current situation bad?
It is terrible because it led to war.
On the other hand, not just like that, not from a surge of philanthropy, the Soviet government
after Stalin removed the Chekists from politics.
Because falling under the authority of the special services is very dangerous.
This leads to settling in a fantasy world, as a result – to making crazy decisions.
We have seen it happen with our own eyes.
No matter how bad it is, it was civilian political managers who ensured almost a quarter of a century of Putin's power.
They won elections for him, by cunning and bribery they ensured the loyalty of the elites and citizens.
They created a parallel reality with the help of propaganda.
They knew how to maneuver between the streams, so that Putin could do what he needed,
but so as not to enrage the citizens to an extreme degree.
Chekists don't know how to do all this.
Chekists are good at provocation, they are good at violence, they are excellent at lying to their superiors.
They see a threat everywhere and in everything, they are alien to multi-layer structures,
some kind of balance of interests, if something poses a threat, it must be cleaned up.
And in Russia there are many interests.
There are many people with money and influence who understand that in such a structure
they will become food sooner or later, but they absolutely do not want to be.
The good news is that such power is unlikely to last very long.
First, because you can't make a lot of crazy decisions without consequences.
Secondly, because all those who have lost power, and their assets and freedom are now under real threat,
tend not to be happy about this.
Is Sergei Sobyanin happy that he was the second politician in the country,
and now his functions have been reduced to supply manager – to plant trees and name squares after the DPR?
Are Volodin, Kiriyenko, Mishustin, the entire establishment happy that their services are in fact no longer needed?
That they are now like bartenders in April 2020: there is no politics in the country and no politicians are needed.
That now their obligations are little: to publicly love the war and listen every time
is this wine was brought to their beautiful palace or a couple of black minibuses drove up,
following the route to the pre-trial detention center, because the KGB convinced Putin that he was the traitor?
That is a good question.
And it is time for the Russian elites to think about this, because it will not end well for them.
See you tomorrow.
And as I have repeatedly said, if russia is faced with such a threat as the admission of ukraine to the NATO,
threats to our country will increase significantly.