The war in Ukraine has been going on for two weeks now.
There are two questions that seem very important to me which I would like to discuss with you today,
and I have been thinking a lot about the first one myself.
And the first question is - who exactly are the “our guys” in this war?
We are all patriots here.
I have been doing politics in this country for 10 years without any gains for myself,
and you’ve been all helping me by participating in campaigns, by donating.
I have received a specialized education for the purpose of making our cities better, all in all we love our country.
And now we see this country, with russian flags on uniforms, is waging a war.
We should be supporting it, shouldn’t we?
We should stand behind our own no matter what, otherwise what kind of patriots we are?
Who cares if they are in the wrong, they are still our people and all that.
This is not an easy question to answer.
Those columns of military vehicles with letters Z on their side which look like modernized swastikas,
they now lie in Ukrainian ditches, and the soldiers are now prisoners in Ukraine - any patriot of Russia should be upset right?
It is, however, difficult to be upset about it when you think about what was in these columns.
Grad complexes and other similar armaments, the tanks, the artillery.
What were they shooting at?
Where were they heading and what were they targeting? Kharkiv. Or Kyiv. Or Mariupol.
Why were they going there and why were they firing?
Nobody knows.
Because Kyev and Kharkiv, and all who live there, they are “our guys” too.
They are people like us, they gather their families to watch “The Irony of Fate” and make olivier salad,
they visit DDT concerts,
they watch this very youtube channel and they make comments under my videos.
The same “our guys” also live in Kyiv, in Mariupol, in Odessa, in Nikolaev.
I mean we all love people and we want only the best for human beings everywhere, but these people in particular,
they are exactly like us!
Visit Kharkiv before the war and you wouldn’t immediately know if you are not in Samara.
Both sides in this war are “our guys”.
There are no fascists on the other side, the russian army is fighting against the ukrainian army,
and what the russian army is shooting at is our cities, cities in which people who are exactly like us suffer and die because of it.
So for me the question of whom to support in this war cannot be answered by simply looking at the uniform a soldier wears,
but by looking at the task the soldier has.
And in this case, without a doubt, Ukraine is right, and Russia is wrong.
The Russian army is on the offensive.
The Russian army has invaded another country.
The Russian army is shelling Ukrainian cities.
Yes, it is clear that there is no objective to target the civilian infrastructure and destroy cities like it happened during the WW2,
but the civilian targets are still being hit, even if by accident, and people die there, children included.
Just two months ago these people watched “The Irony of Fate” and made olivier, ate tangerines from the new year’s table
and listened to their president’s speech, and now they have to run into Poland in tightly packed train wagons, escaping from the russian army,
they are hiding in basements without food and often without water, and some are now dead, killed by a Grad missile that missed the target.
Why is this Grad even there and why is it shooting at all?
And should I feel sad about the Ukrainian army burning it?
I do feel very sad when I see dead Russian soldiers.
There are plenty of photos posted in Ukrainian channels, they say it’s to allow their Russian families to see and recognize them, but there’s more to it of course.
When i see the dead - i feel very sad for them, they are our boys, and never again will they celebrate the New Year with their families
and watch “The Irony Of Fate”, simply because our president went nuts.
But I’m not upset when I see them as prisoners.
I’m even happy when I see them being treated well.
Because they can no longer kill anyone this way, neither our people in Kharkiv or Mariupol, nor our soldiers of the Ukrainian army,
who differ from them only in professionalism.
But if you compare them face to face, there will be no difference
And they will not die themselves for sure.
So perhaps from a human point of view this would be a positive outcome of the war for them
I am all for an early end to the war and for Russia to admit it’s guilt for these events and pay reparations.
But as long as the war goes on, I sympathize and empathize with our civilians in the cities of Ukraine who are going through hell,
and with our defending Ukrainian army which is defending itself from our advancing Russian army.
Everyone is “our guys” in this war.
But some attack while others defend, and a mentally healthy person empathizes with those who defend themselves.
Militancy is common in Russia right now. Polls indicate that Russian citizens, especially the elderly, like the war they see on TV.
It is a very nice war on television, a victorious one, a war in which the russian army frees occupied cities, doesn’t hurt civilians,
it’s all looking good on TV.
You can watch a war like that like it’s a hockey match.
In reality however the Russian army suffered huge losses, a great number of Ukrainian people died, and lots of innocent civilians perished.
And all this destruction and all this horror is brought there by the Russian army.
I really hope that as few soldiers as possible will die there, but when i see a destroyed russian Grad
or a tank that will no longer be able to shoot anything in Ukraine, i’m not upset. As long as nobody died in it.
It is the Russian army that can put an end to this hell at any moment, and all it takes is to leave Ukraine.
It has no reason to be there, there’s no objective.
The Ukrainian army cannot stop this, it has to defend its cities.
Let us now try to figure out how this war might end in theory.
We will avoid getting into details or making accurate forecasts - this is currently impossible, the situation is unique and the data is lacking.
But some options are clear. You can divide them into five scenarios.
Let's take a closer look at each of them.
But first a short commercial break.
As i told you already, we do this even in videos like that, this is what allows this channel to exist and i hope you are okay with it.
Let us continue now, so what are the possible five scenarios for the end of the war?
Of course first of all the war might still end the way Putin originally planned it - which is the capture of large cities,
the fall of Zelensky’s government, show trials against the so called “neo-nazis” and installing some kind of puppet government,
maybe with Yanukovich as the leader.
Lately it looks like this was the plan all along.
Well there might be problems with that.
First of all, there is no way the Russian army can defeat the Ukrainian and take Ukraine by force.
Second, if by some miracle it happens, then after a horrible war like that, after deaths of hundreds of civilians and thousands of soldiers,
any puppet government will be justly treated as collaborationist.
So even now it is clear that the original plan in it’s perfect form would only be possible to implement if the authorities in Kyiv fled
and the capital was taken in two days.
And by the way, on the map that Lukashenko showed to journalists there was an arrow indicating a possible invasion in Transnistria,
and right at that time demands for recognition of independence began there.
But it all looks like a wild fantasy now.
It would be absolutely impossible to install any kind of loyal administration in Ukraine, because the Russian army
can’t be stationed in Ukrainian cities forever, and once it’s gone, this puppet government will be instantly deposed.
There should be a reminder that russian army has yet to come close to entering a single bigger city except for Kherson.
And there doesn't seem to be enough manpower for that
It is however theoretically possible to beat the Ukrainian army, take over the country, move the Russian border to include Donetsk and Luhansk regions,
by signing a treaty with some formal government, and leave Ukraine weakened, with destroyed infrastructure, “demilitarized” as Putin says.
The notorious “purges” of neo-nazis can also be conducted here in the form of trials against certain country leaders - it is unlikely that there
will be mass trials since Russia didn’t do that on it’s own territory yet, and it certainly will be much more difficult to do on an occupied territory.
That was apparently Putin's plan, however now it seems utterly unlikely
All in all this doesn’t seem like a likely scenario - the Russian army advances slowly, and even Donetsk and Luhansk regions
aren’t completely occupied yet.
Of course there can always be some unexpected breakthroughs, but with each passing day it is getting harder to believe in it.
According to the Pentagon, the entire Russian group is already involved, and new units would have to be brought in to strengthen it.
And at that time the Ukrainian army successfully defends itself and doesn’t waste a second, throwing all the resources it can into defense.
Each day Ukraine receives more and more help from Europe and the United states, while all Russia gets is more sanctions,
moving closer to a complete economic collapse and default.
So it doesn't really look like this will happen
And this is why a second scenario, which can be compared to the Vietnam war, seems much more likely.
Back then an american army, superior in all aspects to the enemy, began a war in an extremely hostile territory,
and by the way there was already a civil war going on unlike what we have in our case.
Which means the American army sided with one of the parties in the conflictin order to win quickly and triumphantly.
Something went wrong though: the war lasted for 10 years, and hundreds of thousands of people died in it,
including 50 000 American soldiers.
America committed many war crimes, devastated an entire country and for generations of Americans living at the time
it became either a deep trauma or a stain of shame.
In the end, despite many small victories, America did, in fact, lose the war and didn’t reach its original goals.
Russia can find itself stuck in this insane war against Ukraine, too.
There are however some very important differences which we will discuss here.
First of all, the United States, even though they suffered heavy losses and the war was unpopular among citizens,
was a democratic country, the war was a common theme for rallies and public discussion in general.
People could channel their dissatisfaction with the war in a constructive way. .
In the case of Russia though the discontent has no way to spill out, and it can take some very unexpected forms,.
both within the elites and among the general populace.
Another obvious difference between Vietnam and Ukraine is that for an average American in Texas,
Vietnam is just another country on the other side of the globe,
and war crimes committed there don’t cause as much shock as if they were committed in neighboring Louisiana or Canada
But Russia and Ukraine are almost like Texas and Louisiana or like Texas and Canada!
A large number of Russians have relatives, friends, or acquaintances in Ukraine.
Many of us have been there or watched Ukrainian tv shows, listened to Ukrainian music.
No other country has as many close ties with Russia as Ukraine..
Let me remind you that according to a poll conducted by Russian Field, 88% of Russians want Russia and Ukraine to be friends.
This is why the war in its current state cannot go on for long - either you’d have to cut these ties
which doesn’t seem like an easy task even for our machine of propaganda,
or Russians may begin to understand what this war means for Ukrainian people.,
Many people today just don’t get it. ,
And finally, one obvious difference from the Vietnam war is that during the Vietnam war
the United States was the first economy on the planet with many allies.
And Russia isn’t currently even in the top five in terms of GDP, it doesn’t have any allies at all, except Eritrea,
quite the opposite - all of Europe and America have united against it to cause as much damage as possible to our economy.
Therefore, of course, there won’t be any 10 years, it will all happen much faster and more ingloriously.
Which is a good thing - it means less people will have to die in this senseless war..
The third scenario - let's just mention it so that the list of possible options
is definitely exhaustive - is a counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces.
It does seem unlikely due to how unequal the forces are at a global scale,
but should something unimaginable happen to the Russian army, then Ukraine is ready to counterattack,
the Ukrainian leadership speaks openly about it.
If such an attack is successful then Russia will immediately give back its negotiation positions.
We will discuss the topic of negotiations now in more detail in the context of the fourth, not just hypothetically possible,
but a very probable scenario. This is a relatively quick ending of the war
without it turning into one of the three scenarios we’ve mentioned before due to the agreement of the parties.
It is worth noting that the Russian demands weren’t too clear until lately:
it was about protecting Russians in the Donbass, and about “denazification”, and about “demilitarization”,
and about combating the threat of NATO expansion.
I’m not even mentioning the absolutely wild stories about bubonic plague production laboratories.
There was however one important demand voiced yesterday by Peskov:
Ukraine must recognize Crimea as russian. It was never officially voiced before.
There is a paradox however: on one hand we can all see the importance of recognizing Crimea for the internal politics,
but on the other hand such a recognition which was literally knocked out at gunpoint
wouldn’t be worth a penny neither for the international community, nor for Ukraine itself in the long run.
As we try to predict how Ukrainian people will react to a demand like that,
we need to remember that the recognition of Crimea either as Russian or Ukrainian is not the only option,
there is also an option to keep the status quo.
It might actually become satisfactory for both parties at some point.
The two other demands that Peskov voiced were to recognize the DPR and LPR (within their regional borders it seems)
and to add a promise to never join NATO into the Ukrainian constitution.)
It seems like Russia also demanded that Zelensky should appoint a pro-russian prime minister,
but we don’t have any official statement on that and it’s all a rumor for now.
The matter of DPR and LPR seems the most complicated - it would be very difficult to bring back the status quo there.
Zelensky did, however, say yesterday that a possible recognition of Crimea
and the republics of Donbass may be negotiated and a compromise solution may be found.
It is not entirely clear what kind of compromise Putin can make here - if he.
recognizes the DPR and LPR as part of Ukraine it will just look silly.
It is quite dramatic actually - for a normal president it would only be natural to put an end to war
and return all the illegally occupied territories.
But even if Putin suddenly came to his senses (suppose a miracle happens)
and wanted to fix everything, the very circumstances
in which he put himself are pushing him to continue this monstrous war.
As a matter of fact, this was one of the main reasons for why we thought the war was impossible,
because once it has begun, it is hard to stop.
Wartime leaves little space for political and diplomatic maneuvering.
Let’s not forget about the opposite effect however - since the war is not backed by any ideology,
since it has no clear and achievable goals and it’s whole purpose
is artificially constructed by propaganda, then victory can also be artificially constructed in the same way.
Russia can even have peace on unfavorable terms that are not even close to whatever objectives
were originally declared, and it can still be presented
as a triumphant victory of our dearest Vladimir Vladimirovich, the master strategist.
The last of Putin’s demands, the one about not joining NATO,
does, no matter how big and unbeneficial to Ukrainians it is,
look the most feasible - even now Zelensky is being critical about NATO,
saying that the alliance doesn’t do enough to support Ukraine.
Yesterday, he said in plain text that he himself had lost interest in NATO,
since the alliance is not ready to accept Ukraine and is too afraid of a confrontation with Russia.
Given the circumstances and according to how fiercely ukranian forces are fighting,
it seems like NATO should be applying to join Ukraine, not vice versa
Statements like that look like diplomatic maneuvering to push his positions further during the negotiations.
It is possible that he might make use of his high ratings among Ukrainian people,
which is above 90%, to legitimately make such a decision in order to stop the war.
Yesterday, after statements by Zelensky himself, his party published a response
to Russia's demands not to join NATO. It is said there in plain text
that joining is currently impossible, but a specific agreement is required by which the USA, Turkey,
and neighboring states would guarantee the security of Ukraine until it joins NATO at some point in the future.
And finally there is one last scenario, which is related to NATO.
The war can escalate into a larger conflict, maybe even a nuclear war.
Putin basically said it in plain text that he’d drop a nuke on anyone who would dare to interfere into the war.
Probably something like allowing the Ukrainian air force to use your airfields
or some other form of direct involvementinto the conflict would be viewed as an interference.
Right now Russia doesn’t view sanctions or supply of armaments to Ukraine in this manner.
Zelensky actively demands to close the sky above Ukraine,
which we discussed in another video, but nobody is willing to do it as this would be too dangerous.
In general, the collective west is adequately steering away from world war three - Biden, for instance
emphasized that the Russian people are not their enemy, and they are not trying to destabilize Russia.
Let us hope that there will be no further escalation.
Because no matter how horrible the war against Ukraine is,
a war between Russia and the USA with the use of nuclear weapons would be much more horrifying.
But, objectively speaking, this is still quite a long way off.
To summarize: we all want the war to end soon and as few as possible people die,
and for Russian society to go through a hard way of realizing the nightmare
it unleashed on a neighboring peaceful country for no reason.
What will happen after the war? This is a topic for a separate video,
right now it is difficult to give forecasts on domestic politics, but one is obvious - once the smoke clears,
we will see a completely different Russia.
Under heavy sanctions, playing by different rules,
and without the informational autocracy we are all accustomed to.
While i’m recording this video, the last remaining mcdonalds meals are being listed on Avito.
We no longer have the basic stuff that we never expected to disappear.
The central bank had just announced that from now
on you can no longer withdraw more than $10 000 from your bank account.
The world that we got used to no longer exists for us,
this is what I was talking about on the first day of war,
it will take decades for us to get back to where we were just 15 days ago.
As a matter of fact Putin’s regime as it existed through all these years had ceased to exist.
The consensus between the elites is no more, no longer can they make money in Russia
while living in Europe, they cannot keep their money there or send their kids there to study.
This is all gone as well.
After the mist clears we will see an entirely different Russia, heavily impoverished and changed.
Heavily impoverished. If earlier we were worried about years of economic stagnation,
now we will remember it with a warm feeling of nostalgia.
how all these years remembered 2007
One day, Putin’s regime will end.
It may happen due to the dissatisfaction within the elites and the people
with the consequences of this monstrous war which will under no circumstances bring Russia any good.
Or maybe it will end in another, more natural way.
The good news is that, in a deeply personalized system like ours,
you cannot simply replace one leader with another without a complete transformation of the entire political system.
It is hard to tell how it will all go, but one thing is clear.
No matter how leaders and political systems change in Russia,
our country will have to admit it’s guilt in waging an aggressive war,
return the annexed territories, pay reparations and completely revise its foreign policy.
Without this we cannot move on,
cannot develop and become a strong country, one respected all over the world.
And this will inevitably happen, it is only a matter of time.
See you tomorrow!