Recently, a lot of videos have been released on my channel that relate to the war, but tangentially.
We talked about the economy, about how to avoid mobilization, about the place of Victory Day in the Putin system.
But little was said directly about the war.
And this is understandable: the plot that took shape at the beginning or middle of April is still going on as usual.
The widely announced “battle for Donbass” as a global battle did not happen.
It did not happen for objective reasons – the Russian army simply does not have the resources for this.
Instead of a new Kursk Bulge, we are witnessing positional battles for villages and small towns with varying success.
The only real news of late is the successful counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian army in the Kharkiv region,
the signing of the Lend-Lease program for Ukraine by Joe Biden,and the struggle of the entire developed world for those military men who continue to defend Azovstal,
and those civilians who are hiding there from the Russian army.
We have been following the turning point in the war for more than a month now.
But not in the way you expected.
Not in the form of a single event, after which the occupier will not recover, but in the form of scales,
which gradually, after passing the zero point, moves towards Ukraine.
This is clearly visible on the map.
If February is the rapid advance of the occupying forces, then March is a slowdown and a stop,
April and May are an increasingly intensive liberation of Ukrainian territories.
In this regard, it is very interesting to observe how, with a delay of about a month, what we say is repeated by Western observers.
Joe Biden said the other day that Putin is in a stalemate, he has no chance to win, but in no case can he lose.
In support of this thesis, today we will have a review video with the state of affairs on the fronts.
In order to make this video, we used both maps and experts from our second news channel, our newsroom.
Subscribe to it by the way. We talk about interesting reviews, situation on the frontline,
world biggest media analytics and what is going on in Russia and Ukraine.
Let's start from the south –
from the direction where in the first days and weeks of the war the Russian army, advancing from the Crimea,
achieved the best result.
The offensive here developed in two directions: towards Odessa and towards Mariupol.
In the western part of this front, Kherson was taken at the beginning of March.
Local success in this area was due to the fact
that Russian troops were able to capture both bridges across the Dnieper in southern Ukraine:
the Antonovsky bridge and the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.
After this, there was no significant advance for the Russian troops here.
A further offensive towards Odessa looks unrealistic.
Why?
Firstly, on the way you need to take Mykolaiv.
They already tried to do this, there was an attempt to storm Mykolaiv.
Russian troops landed in helicopters in the city itself, motorized units approached its outskirts.
But the Ukrainian side managed to organize a defense, dislodge the landing force and drive the Russian troops out of the Mykolaiv region.
And this despite the fact that the terrain favored the Russian troops:
the south of Ukraine is steppe, there are no forests here, and Russian aviation could actively help its ground forces.
But that did not happen.
Secondly, in order to capture Odessa, it will be necessary to force the Southern Bug River,
which is now too tough for the Russian army.
Thirdly, to take the city, you need an amphibious assault, and a amphibious assault is impossible: there is no one to land.
All available forces are already involved in the battles or lost,
and there is no one to cover the landing, because the cruiser «Moskva» lies at the bottom of the Black Sea.
Russian ships are now afraid to approach the Ukrainian coast, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine have received various anti-ship missiles from the UK.
And their own Ukrainian missiles «Neptune» showed their effectiveness in battle on the example of the cruiser «Moskva».
In general, the land corridor in Transnistria,
which the command of the Russian army listed among the tasks of the war, is out of the question.
But the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have enough forces in this direction to go on the counteroffensive.
Therefore, almost nothing has been happening here for two months, except for rocket attacks on Odessa, Mykolaiv and other cities, as a result of which civilians are killed.
At the same time, Kherson remains the only success of the Russian army in this war.
If you can call it a success at all.
Nevertheless city is occupied
There, the Russians have appointed an occupation administration and seem to be quite stable in keeping this territory under their control.
For several weeks there have been talks about the possible annexation of the Kherson region by Russia, even without a referendum.
But for now, it's just words.
However, at a fairly high level:
In the eastern part of the front, the main events developed and continue to develop in Mariupol.
Parts of the Russian army and the armed forces of the DPR closed the ring around the city, also in early March,
and the siege has been going on for two months.
The last defenders of the city took cover on the territory of the Azovstal plant, where they keep the defense in complete encirclement, under constant shelling and bombing.
On April 21, Sergei Shoigu reported to Putin about the capture of Mariupol, saying that only Azovstal remained under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Putin ordered to cancel the order to storm the plant, but the battles for Azovstal continue to this day.
The only good news is that after long negotiations, some of the civilians were withdrawn from there.
There is no other good news regarding Mariupol.
The city is actually destroyed, the number of dead cannot be estimated even approximately,
but it is clear that it is measured in many thousands.
The capture of Mariupol, logically, was supposed to release part of the troops for the Russian army, which could launch an offensive
to the north near the city of Gulyaipole, Zaporozhye region.
Further, they would have to connect with the units advancing from north to south and take units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass into the circle.
But in the days that have passed since Shoigu's report, we do not see any significant progress.
There are local battles near Hulyaypole, there is no smell of a breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense there.
Most likely, the units that left Mariupol suffered serious losses, and therefore their appearance in other sectors of the front could not significantly change the events.
But the Ukrainian side does not have enough forces here to launch a powerful counteroffensive.
The southern part of the Russian pincers, which were supposed to close behind the back of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is in stagnation.
Now about the central part of the front, which runs through the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
To assess the scale of advancement in the self-proclaimed DPR, let's say that now, in mid-May,
the fighting is going on for the villages of Avdeevka and Marinka.
What is Avdiivka and Maryinka?
These are the nearest suburbs of Donetsk, the capital of this very DPR.
From the center of Donetsk to Avdiivka – 17 kilometers in a straight line,
it's about the same as from the Kremlin to Khimki (suburb of Moscow).
Thus, in two and a half months of fighting, there is practically no progress here.
And to the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, the achievement of which seems to be declared one of the goals of the war,
80-90 kilometers from Donetsk in different areas.
The main battles are now taking place in the Luhansk region.
The battles unfolded for the settlements of Severodonetsk, Rubizhnoye, Lisichansk.
Russian troops have not yet been able to take any of them.
A little to the south is the town of Popásna.
The battle for this settlement began in mid-March, and recently the Russian armed forces managed to capture Popasna.
However, there is practically nothing left of the city, it is completely destroyed.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that they left Popasna on purpose, since there was no longer any point in defending it.
In fact, this is not entirely true: Popasna is located on a hill, and this will be used for shelling Severodonetsk, Lysichansk, as well as Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
The most powerful Russian grouping is concentrated on the arc from Popasna to Izyum.
According to analysts cited by CNN, this is about 50 battalion tactical groups, with about a thousand fighters each.
In the center of this arc are the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk –
the main fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the main goal of the current stage of the war.
From the north, 22 battalion tactical groups are advancing on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk in the area of ​​​​the city of Izyum.
Izyum itself was captured in early April.
This is the most saturated part of the front:
here, according to researchers, there is one battalion tactical group for every 2.7 kilometers.
However, there is no significant progress in this area either.
Russian troops were able to advance south of Izyum towards Slavyansk for about 15 kilometers.
According to the Ukrainian side, as a result of several counterattacks, the Russian troops went on the defensive in this direction.
Heavy fighting is also taking place on the eastern bulge of this front.
Russian troops are trying to capture the city of Liman here, as well as to force the Seversky Donets River
in order to approach Slavyansk from the northeast.
Near the village of Belogorovka, Russian troops have been trying to cross this river for three days now,
building a crossing with the help of pontoon bridges, while Ukrainian artillery is destroying this crossing and all the troops around the crossing.
The researchers counted 73 destroyed armored vehicles of the Russian troops from photographs on this tiny piece of land including tanks.
These are heavy losses! Look at these pictures.
At the same time, it is worth noting that the actions of the Russians in the Izyum sector bind the Ukrainian army with battles
and prevent it from proceeding with the liberation of Kherson or the release of Mariupol.
Recently, the actions of the Russian troops show how their appetites are decreasing.
In the first days of the war, they clearly intended to encircle the entire grouping of Ukrainian troops on the left-bank part of Ukraine.
Attacks were planned from the north of Kharkiv and from the south of Melitopol,
through Zaporozhye, to the city of Dnieper.
This plan ceased to be relevant after the first weeks of fighting, when they could not take Kharkiv or approach Zaporozhye.
Therefore, they decided to surround the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a strike from the south of the city of Volnovakh
in the south-west of the Donetsk region and a counter strike from the north, from Izyum.
After long bloody battles, both of these cities were taken,
but further advance was stalled due to the stubborn resistance of the Ukrainian forces.
As a result, the Russian command changed the entire strategic plan.
The generals realized that they could not take Ukraine with the available forces with a swoop,
and they had to concentrate their efforts in one place.
As a result, Russian troops completely retreated from Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy,
regrouped, changed tactics, and announced the second phase of the so-called special operation – the battle for Donbass.
In mid-April, an offensive began from the south, from the area of ​​​​Ugledar and Gulyaipol,
a little later — from the north of Izyum.
After the exertion of all forces, they were able to advance a little, and now troops stopped again.
After that, apparently, appetites decreased again, and politics also intervened —
after all, it is necessary to show at least some result after two months of the war,
and the command decided to surround the Ukrainian troops in the area of ​​Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
As part of this plan, they occupied Popasna,
but, apparently, there is no strength to go to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
So they decided to shorten the target again and go from Popasna and Yampol to Bakhmut.
Here the offensive also failed, and we see that the plan has been reduced again —
now they are trying to encircle only Severodonetsk and Lisichansk.
Finally, let's look at the northern part of the front.
Let me remind you that at the end of March, Russia announced the withdrawal of troops from the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions.
Officially, this was explained by a kind of goodwill gesture for better progress in the negotiations —
we will talk about the negotiations later.
But in fact, the withdrawal of troops was necessary in order to concentrate efforts on achieving at least some success.
In early April, the troops also left the Sumy region.
And now it's Kharkiv's turn.
As a result of a series of counterattacks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to push Russian positions away from Kharkiv,
liberate settlements north of the city, and, according to some reports, reach the state border of Ukraine with Russia.
The withdrawal of Russian troops from Kharkiv will lead to a decrease in the number of shelling of the city —
even now, cannon artillery does not reach Kharkiv.
By the way, about the shelling.
On April 1, two helicopters flew into Russian territory from Ukraine and attacked an oil depot in Belgorod.
Then they calmly returned.
This was, by the way, the first case of the bombing of Russian territory by the army of another state since the Second World War.
Since then, the authorities of the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk regions have repeatedly reported shelling of settlements from the side of Ukraine —
and the Ukrainian side has invariably replied that it had nothing to do with it.
On May 11, in the village of Solokhi, Belgorod Region, one person died —
this is the first civilian in Russia who died in this war.
In general, to summarize everything that has been said.
The advance of Russian troops in Ukraine is obviously bogged down.
Even the concentration of forces on a specific section of the front from Izyum to Popasna did not help to move it.
Moreover, the Ukrainian troops go on a counteroffensive, force the Russians to defend themselves, and in some places transfer military operations even to the territory of Russia.
It looks like this trend will continue in the future.
It is completely incomprehensible how the Kremlin hopes to reach a turning point in the war.
The Russian group is not big enough to break the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and is also demotivated.
Soldiers do not understand what they are fighting for.
In reality - no one does.
In addition, experts talk about weak command and control of troops.
Until April, the Russian invasion force, according to US intelligence, did not even have a one commander.
Then – again, according to the Americans — General Dvornikov was appointed.
After his appointment, the situation improved somewhat, but problems with logistics and coordination of actions still persist.
Before the war, many expected that due to the total dominance of Russian aviation over the battlefield,
it would be able to help suppress the resistance of the ground forces.
But it is obvious that Russian aviation did not become a decisive force,
as, for example, it was during the operation in Iraq by US troops and their allies.
Experts attribute this to both the work of Ukrainian air defense and the very weak Russian system of aviation control,
the issuance of target coordinates and the distribution of strikes.
And Ukraine continues to receive weapons from Western allies.
On May 9, when Russia celebrated Victory Day, US President Biden signed the lend-lease law,
which will greatly simplify the transfer of weapons to Ukrainians.
Deliveries of equipment are already coming from the USA, Great Britain, Germany and other countries.
Time works for the Ukrainians.
They are fighting on their own land, they have a clear and understandable goal — to expel the invaders.
The whole world helps them.
They have no problem recruiting motivated reservists – on the contrary,
many who come to the military registration and enlistment offices are denied conscription,
because the Armed Forces of Ukraine simply cannot cope with such a large flow of recruits.
The balance that has developed at the front in recent weeks will sooner or later be destroyed.
And the scales will swing towards Ukraine seriously and strongly.
Now a few words about the negotiations.
In short, they are also in a state of stagnation.
The last face-to-face meeting of the delegations took place on March 29 in Istanbul.
There is no progress in the negotiations, because the Russian side is no longer able to put forward conditions,
and the Ukrainian side is not yet able to.
Both Kyiv and Moscow hope to achieve some more significant success on the battlefield, and only after that issue ultimatums.
And, as I said, time is on the side of Ukraine, and the negotiations, when they resume –
and they will certainly resume sooner or later – Ukraine will already be conducting from a position of strength.
This is the reason why we don't release frontline news videos every day.
Just because the whole month can be put into a story for 10 minutes.
One can conclude that Putin found himself in a stalemate.
The war has passed into the stage when it goes to exhaustion:
the one who runs out of resources first will lose.
Ukraine will not run out of them.
Moreover, those resources, those heavy weapons,
the deliveries of which were agreed at the end of March and April, are only now beginning to arrive.
A $40 billion aid package from the United States, lend-lease supplies are all in the future.
We haven't seen the most interesting yet.
What Putin will do when his troops are driven out of the country, not only in Kharkiv, but in all the occupied regions, we do not know.
Moreover, he himself does not know, and the rest of the world does not know.
After all, two months ago it was said that Ukraine might be able to adequately respond,
that it would be able to stop the enemy, and it should be helped in this.
Even the biggest friends of Ukraine, the biggest optimists,
could not even think that Ukraine would be able to achieve a military victory.
That it will be able to regain the previously occupied territories and defeat the Russian army.
Now they talk about it not even as a forecast, but as a fact that has become only a matter of time.
This is the main result for mid-May, and this is the success of Ukraine that could not be imagined.
That's the story about the state of affairs on the frontline today.
If you want to watch these regularly, here is the news channel, we do it there on daily basis.
And here we'll publish such videos upon requirement.