Yesterday, according to reports from both the Ukrainian media and the US military, it seems – everything needs to be spoken
about carefully in this war, but it seems that either an offensive or preparations for an offensive
by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russian troops in Kherson began.
We do not yet have exact information about what is actually happening.
Nevertheless, Kherson is a topic that is worth discussing.
Because it is Kherson that can provide a turning point in the war.
Before we start, a short announcement for my Israeli viewers.
Now let’s start.
Kherson is the most important city of this war.
Because it is the only city captured by Russia.
Mariupol is no longer a city - now it's just an entry in the state land cadaster.
Just ruins in an open field, where everything is destroyed, from the housing stock to economic meaningfulness.
Kherson is the only point on the map of Ukraine captured by Russia as a trophy.
Everything else is either too small or cheaper to build from the scratch than restore.
And Kherson, unlike Severodonetsk, for example, is a well-known location.
Not Odessa nor Kyiv, of course, but the average Russian citizen at least heard the word.
The referendum on the annexation of Kherson is so far the only thing that can be passed off as a victory.
Yes, this is a clear rate cut.
To encroach on one of the largest European countries, and in the end be satisfied with the regional center -
this will not be easy to sell to the Russian electorate.
Although there is a chance that propaganda will cope.
But leaving without Kherson means leaving with nothing at all.
And it doesn’t matter whether Ukraine manages to de- occupy Donetsk, Luhansk and Mariupol or not.
Kherson has already been declared captured.
“Russia is here forever”, “we are about to hold a referendum” and so on.
Here you can’t say, that “Kherson was not part of the original plan for this special operation.”
The victory has already been declared. Losing the city is a defeat.
Actually, this circumstance makes Kherson so important for the Ukrainian army.
Ukraine has not only purely military gains here, but political and psychological ones as well.
The military task is clear - with the liberation of Kherson, the further advance of the Russian army
along the Ukrainian Black Sea coast is over, and over even in theory.
Right now, Mykolaiv and Odessa are completely illusory targets, but without Kherson,
they will cease to be targets at all.
The psychological task is to radically change the mood at the front.
The capture of Kherson will simply turn the morale for the troops of both sides.
Prior to this, the Russian army, although moving at the speed of the drift of continental plates, was at least moving.
Let alone the Kyiv direction - they did not even manage to gain a foothold there.
But here you have to retreat, really retreat.
For the Ukrainian side, this will be clear evidence that it is simply not necessary to pay attention
to any fixed flags of the Russian Federation.
That as Russia "came forever" - so it will run away.
That the Russian army moves equally easily in both directions.
The political task is also obvious.
Russian society today consists of three groups.
The ardent supporters of the war, its equally ardent opponents and the absolute majority,
who simply want all sorts of sociologists to ask those questions themselves and instead of bothering others.
Now to be against the war means to be against Putin, but after a clear military defeat,
being for the war will also mean that you are against Putin.
Not for humanitarian reasons, but because Putin is not coping with the tasks of empire building.
What kind of emperor this is: he lost his army, did not capture anything, whatever he captured - he lost.
The loss of Kherson will have completely unpredictable consequences for Russia's domestic politics,
and therefore, ultimately, for the outcome of the war.
Because it is clear that if Putin is not a president anymore or there is some unrest in Russia, the war will end.
Although little is known so far, based on the available information, we can assume
what happened in southern Ukraine.
Yesterday, the Armed Forces of Ukraine broke through the defense line in several places on the southern front
and occupied several front-line villages.
This breakthrough is now called the beginning of the counteroffensive, although this is not entirely correct
The Russian army stopped advancing on the southern front back in April.
Since then, Ukraine has recaptured small towns from time to time.
In total, since the end of spring, more than fifty villages have passed from the hands of the Russian
army into the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The counteroffensive has been going on especially intensively since July.
Since then, Ukraine has occupied a foothold on the eastern bank of the Ingulets River, setting up pontoon crossings.
Ukrainian forces shelled military bases and warehouses in the Kherson region and the Crimea,
complicating the supply of ammunition and equipment.
And most importantly, damaged the main bridges across the Dnieper River connecting
Kherson with the rest of the occupied territories.
This forced Russia to choose: either send more equipment and soldiers to Kherson
to repel a possible Ukrainian offensive, or, conversely, withdraw them from there, out of fear
that part of the formations will be almost completely cut off from supplies.
Yesterday's breakthrough of the front is a logical continuation of the long process of de-occupation
of the south of Ukraine.
The counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kherson does not mean at all that,
following the generals on white horses, the soldiers will march to liberate the city, right on the enemy machine guns.
The offensive will be happening in stages and will stretch over weeks and months,
which will take to dislodge Russian troops from fortified positions.
Fights in dense urban areas are difficult and long.
De-occupying Kherson will not be easy, for the same reason that the Russian army cannot easily
capture Avdiivka or Bakhmut.
Although of course there is always the possibility that the Russian army simply decides
to retreat due to the inevitability of heavy losses.
For this reason, the offensive proceeds without patriotic hysteria from the Ukrainian side, without bravura statements
about the capture of Kherson in three days and about the parade on Freedom Square in a week.
Only the deputy head of the Odessa regional military administration Aleksey Matsulevich distinguished
himself with a bold statement about the offensive.
He wrote in the Telegram channel, saying that there are already battles right outside the Kherson,
but immediately deleted his post.
Now the leadership of Ukraine understands that inflated expectations, say, about the rapid defeat of the Russian
army, can negatively affect the entire military operation.
Therefore, significant people in the Ukrainian leadership do not promise a quick release of Kherson.
And only a few, like Vitaly Kim, limit themselves to light trolling of the Russian army.
Despite the fact that the de-occupation of the south will be long and difficult, yesterday's breakthrough
will lead to an improvement in the situation for Ukraine in the short term.
First, it will reduce the likelihood that Russia will try to annex territories to almost zero.
If the Ukrainian army is advancing 10 kilometers from Kherson, what is the point of organizing a referendum?
Yes, the shame from the loss of Kherson will be clearly greater if this happens after the celebration
of the “return of Kherson to its native harbor”.
Secondly, the advance to Kherson gives Ukraine the initiative in the war.
Now the Russian leadership will be forced to redistribute forces.
This is especially important on the eve of the arrival of the Third Army Corps at the front.
Previously, it was expected that it would be sent to the eastern front and take part in the battles
for the suburbs of Bakhmut, Soledar and Seversk.
And now it is quite likely that the attack on Kherson will mix up all the cards for the generals.
Regarding yesterday's breakthrough of the front, the speakers of the Russian side, as always,
expressed several versions that contradicted each other.
The first is that there is no offensive at all.
It was voiced by the pro-Russian head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov,
and then picked up by other officials and the media.
Allegedly, the advance of the Ukrainian troops was entirely made up by the Armed Forces of Ukraine,
and all the video and photo evidence of the battles in the southern direction is a production addressed
to the Western allies of Ukraine, who demand decisive action from it.
However, the information that the Ukrainian offensive near Kherson is underway,
and is at least painful for the occupants, is confirmed by many sources that are difficult
to suspect of sympathy for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Thus, the Gray Zone telegram channel, which covers the war from the point of view of the Wagner war group,
reports on the successes of the Ukrainian army in the southern direction.
The second version is that the offensive took place, but ended in a bloody failure.
This version is voiced by the Ministry of Defense.
They sat that Ukraine wanted to advance to Kherson, but was defeated, lost several hundred people,
dozens of tanks and two aircraft.
As usual, no evidence of such large losses has been presented.
In general, Russian propaganda monthly declares the failure of the counteroffensive
and the complete defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,
so it is also hard to believe in the version of the Ministry of Defense.
The news of the last hour from our Ministry of Defense.
An attempted offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Nikolayev and Kherson regions failed miserably.
The losses of the AFU amounted to more than 560 servicemen, 26 tanks, 23 BMPs, 9 armored vehicles,
and two SU-25 attack aircraft.
According to the military department, the failed offensive attempt was carried out on direct orders from Zelensky.
No matter how the events with the attack on Kherson develop further, we can definitely say that this city
will become one of the main topics for discussion in the coming months.
This is the only city with which Putin can at least hope for a repeat of the Crimea effect.
Kherson, of course, is not an all-Union health resort, but at least a roughly known point on the map,
a regional center with as many as three hundred thousand people.
And propaganda will help to convince the Russians that they have dreamed all their lives
of visiting Catherine's Cathedral without crossing borders and looking at the Kherson Monument to Shipbuilders.
The capture of Kherson, of course, was not as bloodless as the annexation of Crimea, but at least the city
was not turned into ruins, and it seems that many residents did not run away.
By pouring macroeconomic amounts into infrastructure and social security, one can create the illusion
that Kherson residents lived worse under the Ukrainian government than under the Russian government,
and themselves dreamed of reunification with Russia.
Among other things, Kherson is the pathway to the Crimea.
For this reason, it was captured first, for this reason it is very important geographically.
It turns out in its purest form a case of real geopolitics - the case when geography meets politics.
Kherson is not just a physical road to the Crimea.
If it is captured, then no one will be able to take lightly the prospect of the return of Crimea itself.
That is, Crimea becomes not just “unsafe”, in the sense of bombing and sabotage.
Crimea runs the risk of changing its jurisdiction, which will most dramatically affect the loyalty of local citizens -
especially those who did not have any particular preferences, but simply accepted the change of flag.
After all, today you are a loyalist, and tomorrow - a traitor.
What are we coming to?
The task of de-occupying Kherson is incredibly difficult, especially for an army with
a large shortage of armored vehicles and other offensive weapons.
But the prize is just as incredibly great.
For the Ukrainian army, Kherson is like Kyiv for Putin.
All propaganda structures after the capture of Kherson will immediately collapse, literally in one day,
and Putin's regime may collapse with them.
Because what to do next, how to explain this gesture of goodwill is completely incomprehensible.
It is impossible to make predictions here - except for one thing: if Ukraine succeeds, then life will change for us for all.
See you tomorrow.