This week, the Russian military again shelled cities across Ukraine.
The target was power plants, transmission lines, transport hubs and just residential development.
The Russian leadership actually admitted that missile terror is a response to the blowing up of the Crimean bridge
and the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front. In parallel with this, the “second stage” of mobilization started
in the regions. At the same time, evidence of the death of the mobilized "first wave" began to come from Ukraine.
All this is no longer similar to the victorious campaign that they tried to imagine the war in February.
Even on the TV screen, what is happening more and more looks like a difficult protracted war, but rather a defeat
stretched out in time. Exactly what it is. How do Russians perceive what is happening?
Has their attitude towards the war changed now, when it has touched literally everyone? Let's talk about it today.
And let's try to see the sociology, which isn't representative, but we'll still try to consider it.
HOW THE ATTITUDE TO THE WAR CHANGED
I have said many times that any sociology during the war does not show the truth.
If the answer "No to war" is openly and actively pursued, it is obvious that few will dare to answer that way.
However, what can be assessed is the dynamics. And now the dynamics in opinion polls of recent months and weeks show:
even in such conditions, the number of people supporting the war is decreasing! The decrease in support for the authorities
began in the summer, but after the mobilization it became even more pronounced.
The day before yesterday, the Chronicles project published a new sociology that shows how the number of supporters of the
war has changed in recent times. A week ago, a similar study was released by the Russian Field project.
By the way, from the beginning of the war, sponsors from our chat where we have large sponsors have been dropping off to
polls at Russian Field. so, the trends in both studies are very similar. The last poll of the Chronicles was conducted by
telephone throughout Russia: first 1,000 people on September 21 and 22, then a week later - another 800 people.
Let's immediately look at the main meaning: the answer to the question "Do you support the special military operation?".
51% of the respondents answered “Yes”. That is, in a country where pacifism is declared almost a state crime and betrayal,
where every day people receive fines and sentences for anti- war statements, half of the respondents who agreed to answer
a stranger's question on the phone on this topic. Wow! Once again, this is a telephone survey, that is, there is no question of
anonymity: everyone knows that the number is most often tied to a passport and other data open to the police.
And still, 49% of Russians at the end of September are not ready to say: “Yes, I am FOR this war.”
Look at the chart of the Chronicles, which asks respondents this question almost every month.
The graph clearly shows that support for the special operation has not been growing for at least several months.
This, once again, without taking into account the fact that many, many are simply afraid to voice their opinion, they are
not visible in the survey, or they say what they think they want to hear from them. Here, even the percentage itself is not
important - in fact, even fewer people support the war: most of them, most likely, simply hung up when they hear the
questions, dynamics is important. It is important that even under the fear of prison, the number of supporters of
an aggressive war in Ukraine is constantly decreasing. This is not the only interesting pattern in the study.
Among the 51% of respondents who support the war, only twenty-five to twenty-seven percent are confident
supporters of it, these are those who believe that it is necessary to fight with Ukraine until the complete surrender of
the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They are for mobilization, they are against the withdrawal of troops until the goals of the
special operation are achieved, they declare that they are ready to donate money for the needs of the army.
Just like Putin wanted people to respond. But that's only 25-27% of those who agree to answer.
The rest will either support any decision of the leadership, or are not ready to answer clarifying questions.
Of course, one can say that 25% of ardent militarists among those who agreed to answer questions by phone
is not a small number at all. Yes, but they are clearly not the majority.
Let's look at others - those who are for the withdrawal of troops, are against mobilization and are not ready
to support the Russian army; That is, according to the survey, among those who agreed to answer 18%. Less, but comparable.
There is no insurmountable gap, no overwhelming majority, no popular support for the war and the supreme commander,
which we are told about every day by federal television channels.
25 and 18 percent are normal figures in any democratic country for the two leading parties in parliamentary elections,
which will then negotiate in parliament for many years, seek compromises and make joint decisions.
Here we need to add a few more words about the research methodology, by the way. In the Chronicle poll, there is an option
"I don't want to answer this question." That is, those who are against war or specifically mobilization, for example,
can hide in this option. And the militarists, on the contrary, have nothing to hide in the current situation.
Again, the numbers in different surveys may differ, but, I repeat, the most important thing for us is the dynamics.
And it is this: the number of militarists and pacifists is leveling off every month.
The Chronicle study is not the only one which noticed it, the Russian Field team, in their recent sociology, publishes figures that
show the same thing: there are more supporters of peace with Ukraine, and fewer fans of escalation.
With the same researchers from Russian Field, with a slightly different wording, it is clear that about the same number of
respondents want to continue the “special operation” as they want the transition to peace negotiations.
Russian Field's methodology is different and the questions are different, but the trend is the same: there is no more faith
in the fairy tale about a meager proportion of opponents of the war, even in conditions of total intimidation.
Now an ad, then we'll talk about the reasons for the decline in militarism in society.
ADS
The Russians have more and more reasons not to support the special operation. Why is this happening?
Why are more and more people willing to openly say they want peace, not escalation? The most obvious answer is mobilization.
It was clear in advance that this was an unpopular decision. And that it will undermine the support of the authorities.
You can’t say for 22 years: “Don’t do anything, we’ll figure it out without you,” and then, after a short lecture about the world
hegemon, switch to the mode “We can’t cope without you, climb into the trench.” Here, in general, no sociology is needed.
When military commissars across the country drag two hundred thousand people to recruiting stations by force, threats and deceit,
and at the same time seven hundred thousand people run away from the country wherever their eyes can see,
plus it’s still unknown how many hide in grandmother’s apartments and friends’ dachas, the attitude of the people to mobilization.
And along with this, the number of those who understand is growing: the war now concerns me personally,
and personally I don’t need it. The second, perhaps even more important reason: the Russians began to receive much more real
information from the front-line. And, due to mobilization, they began to look for more such information on their own.
In all polls from the very beginning of the war, it was clear that the majority of supporters of the special operation received information
mainly from television. But starting in September, reality broke through even into the cozy victorious picture of propaganda.
You can even completely reinvent the Russian language, trying to rename the flight, defeat and surrender of cities,
but they will not become victories this way. This means that all of Russia learned about the flight, defeat and surrender of cities.
Moreover, the supporters of the war in Z-societies shouted about retreats louder and tougher than any opposition.
Information about rusty Kalashnikovs, about the lack of boots and uniforms was equally actively reposted by both opponents of the
war and its supporters. But if you don’t need to bet he first to prove anything about the Russian army,
then the supporters of the special operation almost compared the myth of the “second army of the world”
and reality in their own skin, russian Field has another interesting statistic: how much Russians trust the data on the losses of the
Russian army, most do not trust. And this is not surprising: on September 21, Shoigu voiced such frankly fictitious figures.
The decrease in support for war is also affected by the fact that people, surprise, do not like to lose.
Namely, this is what the Russian army has been doing in Ukraine since at least the end of March, when it left the Kyiv,
Chernihiv and Sumy regions. Judging by the way events are developing at the front, Russia still has many defeats ahead,
which means that many more discoveries await those who support the war. The more the Russian army loses, the more the truth is
learned by a wide audience, especially when a military commissar with a summons comes straight to this audience's home.
In addition, there are two circumstances that cannot be hidden by any propaganda. First, the war dragged on.
There is no winning scenario. Not even a winning - in general, some kind of quick completion is not visible on the horizon.
And people get tired of the war very quickly, because imperial ambitions and geopolitical multi-steps on TV are, of course,
good for someone, but no one even from the nuclear electorate of United Russia signed up
to be a resident of an eternally warring country. This was not on the election posters.
Second: people become poorer because of war. Some have lost their jobs, some have lost their salaries for basic things.
But everyone began to live at least a little, but worse. If anything, anyone will notice a decrease in well-being.
If in the spring the sanctions had not yet fully affected the Russian economy, by the fall they had already hit every wallet.
And it is clear to all that this is only the beginning. All these, factors are gradually affecting open support for the war.
For Russians, the idea that the authorities can and do make mistakes is not new at all. It is only in Kiselyov’s program
that Putin is infallible. But the Russians were dissatisfied with the pension reform, dissatisfied with the actions of the authorities
during the pandemic, in the same way, dissatisfaction with the endless special operation is gradually growing, in the 1960s,
Americans gave reasons why the Vietnam War was a mistake.
Losses, conscription, the fact that the war dragged on, and inflation. We have the same here.
And, importantly, all these reasons will only intensify. What do the actions of the Russian authorities look like in this case?
First, they announced their intention to put an indefinite number of the male population of the country under arms, then they somehow
annexed partially captured regions of a foreign state - right at the time of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine -
and now they are terrorizing Ukraine with rocket attacks. Maybe for the most repulsed Z-public this causes joy,
but for any normal person - only dumbfounded, misunderstanding and horror.
WHAT WE UNDERSTAND NOW
The most important thing that we understand now is that there is no reason for the strengthening
of militaristic sentiments in Russian society. Even official state sociologists publish data on the notorious 80%
for referendums and annexation. Quickly or slowly, real support for the war will continue to fall.
This insane and vile war will not have any new meaning, it cannot be turned into either a Patriotic war or a liberation war,
no matter what they say on TV. And no amount of victory over playgrounds and footbridges can
outshine mobilization and recession. This means that more and more people will appear who are looking for reliable information
about what is happening. And we need to spread this information. There will be more doubting Russians - you need to talk to them,
explain, restore ties if they were cut off. Yes, it is hardly worth talking to those who rejoice
at the shelling of peaceful cities in Ukraine. But it is possible for the rest to prove their case - and we will have to do it.
Even if a person turned a blind eye to what was happening for six months, somehow justified the war inside himself,
got used to doing nothing, but now condemns mobilization, it means that there is already a chance
to find a common language. And this opportunity must be seized. In a very short time, the war will end,
and such conversations will have to be carried out with everyone in the country.
Well, at least you and I will have such an experience.
See you tomorrow.