After ten months of non-stop combat, even the staunchest optimists among the pro-war camp should now be convinced:
there is no scenario in which Ukraine could lose a conventional war, it is a mathematically impossible event.
At the beginning of the war, the AFU managed to hold the frontline despite receiving minimal - at that time -
support from Western countries and facing regular units of the Russian army.
However, after ten months, the situation has changed. Most developed countries are working to enhance
Ukraine's military and economic potential.
Putin, on the other hand, is forced to cobble together scraps of military equipment, like outdated tanks
from the 1960s and slow-moving Iranian Shahed drones.
The Ukrainian armed forces are fighting on their own soil, understand their combat tasks clearly,
and have been boosted by a series of strategic victories: around Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and in Kherson.
At the same time, Russian propaganda seems to have given up trying to explain to mobilized civilians the reason
or goal of their presence in Ukraine.
Propagandists have to rely on religious mysticism and convince their audience that this war against
the evil Satan has always been ongoing.
However, just as there is no scenario in which Ukraine would suffer military defeat,
the scenario for Russia's defeat remains unclear.
Despite Vladimir Putin's best efforts, Russia still has the largest territory and a sufficiently large population.
And what’s most important, Russia is the world's largest nuclear state.
The simple fact of life is that neither the AFU, nor the combined army of all countries on the planet would be capable
of completely occupying Russia, or even reaching Moscow to raise their flag above the Kremlin.
By the way we spoke about this in detail back when Russian propaganda was trying to scare us with the NATO threat.
Yes, the Russian army may be pushed from Ukraine, including Crimea.
But it would be physically impossible to force Russia to capitulate as a state.
And this means that unless the current political regime in Russia changes,
the war may continue for many years to follow — as a war of attrition.
There is a precedent to consider: in 1967, the Israeli Defense Forces soundly defeated the Egyptian military
and expelled them from the Sinai Peninsula.
However, Gamal Abdel Nasser's rule in Egypt remained intact, and he continued to wage a war of attrition
against Israel for over three years.
This conflict, which was as meaningless as it was draining for both countries, brought nothing
but casualties and economic problems.
It wasn't until Anwar Sadat, Nasser's successor, reignited hostilities with a large-scale war motivated
by revenge that Egypt and Israel finally signed a peace treaty,
following the bloody Day of Judgment in which the Israeli army was almost defeated and then came close to capturing Cairo.
It is in the interest of both Ukrainian and Russian citizens, as well as of all the people in the world to somehow skip the war
of attrition and the revanchist war stages and put an end to the armed conflict as soon as possible.
But since it would be impossible to force Russia to sign peace from the outside, the desired peace may only happen
as a result of internal political changes in Russia itself.
Only Russian citizens, and no one else, can become the driving force of change.
I reiterate: neither Abrams, nor Leopard, nor Leclerc, nor Bulat will ever drive through the Red Square
to turn Russia into a better country.
It depends on the demand of Russian citizens alone.
So regardless of whether you like Russians or not, or whether you want to talk to them or not,
if you are a responsible public speaker and you speak Russian, you have to be talking to them.
Anyone who speaks or writes in Russian, is working for one or the other side.
They either contribute to positive changes in Russia, or motivate Russians to rally around Putin,
because it’s in human nature to make peace with known evil rather than to strive for the unknown.
Let’s talk about this today.
ADS
SUBJECTNESS
To bring about positive change as quickly as possible, it's important to follow a few simple rules.
The first and most important rule, which we have talked about on our channel many times,
is to motivate supporters and discourage opponents - and never do the opposite.
Today, we are adding another three rules:
Help people regain their subjectness!
Offer them an alternative!
Don’t be like Vladimir Soloviev!
Let’s begin with the subjectness. The problem is that for the past 23 years,
the Putin government has been intentionally suppressing any signs of citizenship
and the feeling that citizens can be political subjects among Russians.
Anyone who manages to secure a place in the ballot as candidates outside of Putin’s system are hailed
as triumphant victors, even if they have no chance of winning.
Participating in an electoral campaign at even the most local level requires not working within the state system, but rather,
attempting to defy and overcome it.
Moreover, for almost a quarter of a century, any form of civic activism or sense of responsibility
for the nation has been either condemned or ridiculed.
For example, Russian propagandists refuse to even consider the idea that a person may go to a picket simply
because they care about the future and the present of Russia.
Nah, the only possible reasons are this: either they are paid by the enemy, or are “useful idiots”, helping enemies for free.
Or just idiots who simply has nothing else to do.
And it never mattered under which flag the activity took place. Pro-government activism was also not tolerated.
Pro-government movements were also marginalized, ridiculed, and suppressed,
because it wasn't about slogans or beliefs at all.
It was about the idea that someone considered themselves smarter than the authorities,
someone thought that their beliefs should be heard, that they had their own vision for the development of the country.
This mentality extends not only to those who participate in protests, meetings, or rallies.
Putin's worldview is that a proper Russian would never waste their personal time and energy on civic activity.
There are only two reasons for political action: either they are controlled by enemies, or they are insane.
According to Putin's discourse, the responsibility of a typical Russian does not extend beyond
their personal apartment or dacha.
An example from 2015 illustrates this point. Responsible citizens spent much of their personal time working
as observers during local elections in the Moscow region, for no pay.
An activity that is beneficial to society - they wanted to ensure that the election was fair.
What did the head of the Moscow Regional Electoral Committee Irek Vildanov do?
Did he express gratitude to the observers?
Perhaps he awarded them certificates of appreciation? No, he stated the following:
“The observers are affiliated with nationalists, our homegrown fascists.
I believe that well-prepared - not without foreign help - nazi forces,
who ultimately stand behind our liberals, acted on the election. These observers received training in Polish camps.”
In a sane political system, these people - civic activists, human rights activists,
independent journalists, philanthropists, environmentalists, urban planners, and educators -
would be role models for everyone to emulate.
Their interests and aspirations extend beyond personal comfort.
However, Putin's government has created a system reminiscent of the one described in the Strugatsky brothers' novel
“An Attempt to Escape”:
What is their crime?
They wanted something weird!
Propaganda has been indoctrinating us for years that to feel personal responsibility for Russia is something weird.
Politics, foreign or internal, is none of your business!
There are special people in the government to handle politics! “Don’t think. Putin will decide for you”.
Liberals, political scientists, Rain and Echo of Moscow speakers, and other "weirdos" warned that such relations
between the state and its citizens would not end well.
And it didn’t, as Putin decided to start a war - criminal against Ukraine and suicidal for Russia.
Today it is important to talk about how, in the end, the civic responsibility that propaganda has denied for so long,
has caught up with us in the end.
That responsibility for politics of your own state cannot be ignored any longer, it must be accepted.
In the near future we must rebuild our own country and pay for all the damage inflicted on Ukraine.
No one can do this for us.
When speaking about the collective responsibility that falls on us, Russian citizens, we must choose our words carefully.
We said it before on our channel, and it wouldn’t hurt to reiterate:
there is a substantial difference between responsibility and guilt.
Imposing feelings of guilt on someone only serves to make them the target of blame.
On the other hand, a person who realizes their responsibility gains agency.
The responsibility falls on all Russian citizens.
The greater the number of Russians who understand that, the more deeply involved they will be in the life of their country.
And the sooner that life can be improved.
As for guilt, it is determined by the court individually. A person is innocent until the court proves otherwise.
The rhetoric about collective guilt serves no purpose other than to make everyone guilty and, at the same time, no one.
This is what propagandists are trying to achieve today when they claim that all Russians will be sent to the Hague.
But no, not all of us and certainly not to the Hague.
Those who are responsible for starting the war, inciting hatred, and committing war crimes -
we will put these people on trial in Russia.
Individually, with evidence, legal representation, and in accordance with proper procedures.
This way our country will show maturity.
I hope such trials will be held in Moscow.
The same approach works for compensations to Ukraine, too.
Paying for the inflicted damage must become a consensus decision made by Russia, specifically by Russian society.
Russian society must feel its subjecthood and its maturity. “It’s not that we, Russians, are being punished.
We aren’t children, but adults. We understand our responsibility and we pay our bills”.
AN ALTERNATIVE
It is not the job of Putin's opponents to come onto the stage in a white dress and deliver a monologue about
how all Russians are guilty.
Russians have already heard enough of these "top-down" addresses from Putin's government over
the past quarter century.
So why would they want to listen to any more accusations from the opposition?
These accusations wouldn’t help them find an alternative to putinism, and our task is to offer them one.
Russians have had enough humiliation from the state. The government never addressed them as equals.
Best case it could “descend” to citizens.
But most of the time it was either ignoring them, directly insulting them, or accusing them of something.
Political figures who want to become a real alternative to Putin's government should communicate with people respectfully,
without condescending tones.
And in a language they can understand.
This does not mean that citizens are unable to understand complex ideas or that everything needs
to be simplified to catchphrases, our fellow citizens are perfectly capable of understanding – they are not dumb.
All I'm saying is that a politician must speak clearly.
In this case, it is the politician who should be held accountable for their professionalism, not the voter.
Most importantly, we must recognize that there is no separate caste of politicians.
Every citizen of Russia has a role to play in politics.
In a healthy, dynamically developing society politics don’t have to always start with “geo-”.
There should be political life thriving not only in Moscow, but in regions, municipalities, prefectures.
This is a reasonable alternative to Putin’s paternalism which has turned into outright savagery.
DON’T BE LIKE SOLOVIEV
Our channel’s team has to watch a lot of Russian propaganda as part of their job. And we had an interesting observation:
no matter what Russians do, Vladimir Soloviev will never like them.
And these 2% of shit think that they have a right to lecture anyone in Moscow?
If you’re trying to somehow improve the lives of the people in your country —
well we all heard what kind of substance he’d call you.
If you’re leaving the country — you are too guilty, according to Soloviev.
So we’ve lost a million and a half of those who found themselves a new motherland.
Those who suddenly felt that they’re Kazakhs, Armenians, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyzs, Georgians …
awarded a medal for storming… (mocking Georgian accent)
They’ve learned everything they knew but couldn’t find an appropriate food for their taste,
perverted with their usual p***rast retail chains.
If you sit tight, Soloviev still comes at you with accusations, demanding that you must sacrifice yourself.
How dare you want to live!
No one is capable of accepting death as well as Russians.
And only in Russian language there is an inscription written with blood: “I die but not surrender”.
And yes, we keep the last grenade for ourselves. And yes, we don’t fear death, for it is inevitable.
We don’t fear death, we fear shame.
It is not just a characteristic of Vladimir Soliviev alone.
It is a characteristic of the entire Putin’s system: it always has internal enemies, some guilty parties.
Russian citizens simply do not have a model of behavior in which one group wouldn’t accuse another,
or in which one group of citizens is not encouraged to turn against another.
This matrix is imposed on the entire Russian society from top to bottom.
If you have served in the Russian army, you have encountered it 100%.
Unfortunately, many are familiar with this system from school.
We need to change not just the dictator, but the whole system of relations between the state and its citizens.
To do this, we need to awaken people’s subjecthood, offer them an alternative, and not be like Vladimir Soloviev.
It would not be appropriate to try and convince Russians that all of them are war criminals worthy of scorn, condemnation,
and stoning.
Such rhetoric would be no different than the one that Russian propaganda is using, which strips Russians of agency
and encourages a sense of helplessness.
Instead, we must remind people that we all are citizens of the Russian Federation.
We have inalienable rights. We have duties. And responsibility as citizens.
Do support people who are willing to take on responsibility. Support those who dare to protest or just not bend.
Those who stay true to themselves and not succumbing to imposed conformity,
threats, or the sense of despair that grows within.
We must show support and respect for those who do not outwardly express their anti-war position,
but withstand significant psychological pressure and remain true to their beliefs.
It is important to not attack them or they would be caught between a hammer and a nail.
Instead, we should help them to reinforce their convictions.
At present, holding one's own opinion is a heavy burden and requires great deal of bravery to maintain.
They should feel that they are not alone, that their beliefs are justified,
and that their civic courage is supported by those around them.
And then everyone will see that dissent is much more widespread than it seems.
And when they see this, a lot more people will turn from dissent to political action.
Till tomorrow.