There’s a lot of irony in that the first Putin’s Address to the Federal Assembly in two years would be
remembered as an insignificant PS to Joe Biden’s visit to Kyiv.
In the past, Vladimir Putin was spending a lot of power and energy to be treated as an equal among world leaders.
Russian propaganda was covering his every handshake.
Every contact between Vladimir Putin and, say, Donald Trump was recorded in detail deserving a manga fanfiction.
Today, Putin has to bear witness to Kyiv becoming the center of Eastern European politics.
The same Kyiv that is the capital of a “non-existent country”, which was supposed to have been taken by Kadyrovites a year ago.
To get there now and be greeted by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has become a world-renowned military leader,
is considered good manners and the best way to get votes for any serious politician.
Putin on the other hand is spending the year one anniversary of the war with Alexander Lukashenko,
a dictator through and through that has his “legitimacy” propped up by the threat of Russian invasion.
With the heads of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in tow, virtual countries that have been heavily depopulated by the war.
We do understand of course that Biden’s visit is no more than a symbolic gesture.
In a world of video conferencing, any IRL meeting of world leaders is more of a political statement,
since most issues are resolved without leaving one’s office.
We cannot, however, overstate the symbolism of that particular meeting.
Putin was the one planning to get to Kyiv, and it was Biden who got there.
Biden came to a city that is being constantly attacked by missiles, whilst Putin is scared to show up even
in the parts of Ukraine he claimed as his own.
He hasn’t even been seen on Russian territories bordering the occupied ones.
Biden’s visit had an additional result as well, it nullified anything Putin can say in his Address.
It has made it irrelevant, no matter what Putin might say there.
He can threaten, grunt, roll his eyes, or make solemn expressions, nobody cares.
A year ago, Putin has threatened anyone daring to defend Ukraine with Armageddon.
Today, the commander-in-chief of the U.S.A. has come to Kyiv bearing gifts of half a billion USD in military aid.
With a record-setting aid of 10 billion USD expected to be delivered on the anniversary.
Russian propaganda was holding its breath that year, hoping the West would get tired of Ukraine, or it would split up over the war.
Every delay in equipment supply was met with great excitement.
They were proclaiming that the West would abandon Ukraine any moment now and it’ll be a sitting duck.
Instead, Putin would face his bureaucratical bunch that had been experiencing all the fun stuff:
frozen bank accounts and properties, being denied entry to their backup countries.
He would be standing before the officials whose future is as uncertain, as the situation at the frontline,
which is pretty desperate: instead of retreating Ukrainian forces managed to advance on Russian
positions both near Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
The state of international affairs is in no better position: allies are not slowing down; the aid sees no end;
Ukraine continues to fight and liberate its land.
The feeling of hopelessness is only deepened by that visit. When POTUS, the most guarded politician in the world,
someone carrying the Nuclear Football at all times, in February of 2023 is visiting a city you planned to capture in February of 2022,
it spells a bad omen to your planned victory.
The war-mongering self-proclaimed “patriots” are experiencing intense butthurt. That’s a slap on their collective face.
The main enemy is visiting the capital of their victim, the state which should have been long captured.
That is happening right on the eve of Putin’s Address. How do Russians retaliate? Have they fired a cruise missile maybe?
Or was there an ICBM launch? Nope, nothing of the sort happened.
What happened to all the threats towards the evil NATO?
Where is that super-secret torpedo that was supposed to create a radioactive tsunami to wipe out all the bad people?
Here is the NATO embodied, right in front of you, several hundred miles from your main forces.
All that and there were no attempts to even hurt the opponent, let alone destroy.
The only thing Russian propaganda could conjure as good news was the narrative that Biden’s visit was coordinated with Russia.
They were saying that Russia let Biden visit Kyiv.
As if Russia partook in the discussion on the visit. Later, however, news came that there was no coordination.
That Russia was notified of the visit several hours prior, which is a standard approach in those kinds of scenarios.
That has rattled the public wanting to pick a fight with NATO even more.
How is that possible that you were notified, and you have done nothing?
State propaganda also did nothing. It is discussing new weapons Kyiv would get.
Instead of talking about the fact that Biden is celebrating an anniversary of your defeat,
when you were planning to celebrate an anniversary of your victory in Kyiv.
From the very start of that war, we were saying that an authoritarian government can be seen as many things:
bloodthirsty, dishonest, vile, and brutal.
The only thing it cannot be seen as is pitiful.
The more empty threats such government produces, the more pitiful and pathetic it looks.
Its words are losing all credibility. Putin’s speechwriters are not impressing anyone anymore.
Should they spew out more empty threats? Or should they mention “red lines” again, which has long become a meme?
What can they say when there are no Russian soldiers in Bakhmut after six months of fierce fighting, whilst Biden is very much in Kyiv?
A year later, it’s no secret to anyone that this war is anything but a success.
A year sounds ominous on its own, without the symbolism provided by American enemies in abundance.
THE RESULTS
It is rather interesting how a year at war is wrapping up.
It is a victory from the position of Ukraine’s Western allies, their united victory. Kyiv was supposed to fall in 96 hours.
It not only hasn’t done that but has proven instead that it excels in both defense and offense.
Western allies’ stance has proven to be very successful.
They are on the winning side; they’ve got something to show to their voters as a result of all the large expenses.
The dictator has been stopped in his tracks; he is being pushed away from Ukraine.
We are on the right side of history, the side of Good.
All the attempts to appease the aggressor with peace talks have produced the result opposite to the one expected.
It became apparent that the only language Putin understands is force.
He is talking about peaceful solutions more often as his forces lose their strength.
This year at war has demonstrated that the only thing that works is arming and supporting Ukraine.
We need to increase such support. I believe we shall see new aid packages being announced in the following days.
The best way Western allies can celebrate the anniversary is by providing more arms and money.
None of Putin’s strategies have produced results.
Blitzkrieg, a full-scale offensive from three directions has utterly failed, costing thousands of mechanized units
and a large share of Russia’s elite forces.
Amassing soldiers in the Donbas has not yielded results.
The annexation of territories Russia doesn’t control has made the whole world laugh.
That move wasn’t even taken seriously by Russia’s own propaganda.
Large-scale missile attacks have made Ukraine’s winter even harsher but have done zilch in the military sense.
Using fossil fuels as a tool for blackmail has cost Russia the European gas market.
They have failed to capture Kyiv. The West is more united than ever, despite all efforts.
They have tried to freeze everyone and plunge into darkness; nobody has crawled back or frozen.
There hasn’t been a single strategy, political or military, that has produced any noteworthy result.
There hasn’t been a military victory for Ukraine and its allies yet. They haven’t pushed the enemy back to the borders set in 1991.
But the path to it is evident now: Ukraine needs more weapons and there shouldn’t be any discussions with ones
thinking that compromises mean weakness.
Putin’s got nothing.
There’s nothing he can pass as a victory. What’s more there is nothing he can even pass as a path to victory.
Nothing to show as an example, something that yielded results that can be replicated.
It seems that the full-scale assault which started towards the end of January was supposed to be that something.
Ok, our special operation has failed, turning into a war.
However, we have analyzed our mistakes; it’s a real deal now; we’ve mobilized a ton of people;
we’ve sent them all to the frontline; started a full-scale offensive where we’ve got some results.
That is how we’re going to do it. We need to approach it Stalin-style: sending a lot of people into an inferno until
the desired result is achieved. It’s a bloody and inhumane strategy, but the one that works.
But it doesn’t. They have killed a lot of people.
Mediazona had to find volunteers to comb through all the obituaries, they were so many of them.
We are yet to see any results, however, that would indicate that approach to be a success.
When HIMARS were supplied to Ukraine, that allowed it to attack the warehouses killing any chances Russia had for an offensive.
What did that tactics bring? They have amassed hundreds of thousands of people with hundreds dying daily.
What is the result of that? Soledar? A bloody scuffle around the local centers of the Donetsk region without any sign
of a victory or a triumph. Is that the path? A capture of a town with a population of 10,000 that took a year.
At that rate, even our grandkids won’t see Russians getting to the borders of the Donbas area.
THE PROSPECTS
That is the difference between happy and smiling Biden, who is posing with Zelenskyy in Kyiv, and Putin,
who will be saying something today.
Biden is viewed as the leader of the coalition that is winning and will continue to do so.
No matter what Putin says it would sound pathetic: sure, I’ve failed, but I’ll come up with something.
We’re going to win in the second round, in the second year.
He would use a different language of course.
It would sound something like: time has shown that we have made the only right choice.
That the West has dropped the pretense and showed its fangs.
But we have endured, you see, even the economy has only dropped a couple of points
(there is a reason why Federal State Statistics Service has produced those statistics right before the Address).
They’ve been trying to suffocate us, but we have prevailed. Do you see Abrams tanks on Tversky boulevard in Moscow?
I don’t see them either! That is almost a victory. We have defended Moscow and haven’t died of starvation.
He will say that 99% or more of people are united in their decision to fight the enemy to the end.
That there won’t be any godforsaken Western values on our land.
Something we won’t hear for sure is results or plans.
There will be a lot of excuses and explanations that the war was inevitable, without any indications of how to end it.
Putin will be comparing war to COVID, a natural disaster that happened without him being involved.
It doesn’t really matter now.
The event that was supposed to bring some glimmer of hope, to demonstrate the illusion of Putin’s control over
the situation has been killed and buried by Biden’s visit to Kyiv and the overall feeling that Putin is going to lose the war.
That event won’t have any positive effect, no matter how small. It is hopelessness at its finest.
There may be something else to discuss after the Address, so I’m not saying goodbye just yet.
I would like to add one more thing. It’s been a year to the day since I left Russia.
It began as a trip to film our docuseries about World War, Battle for Britain part of it.
But it turned into my longest leave away from Moscow.
I’ve been doing a lot of things before the war: I partook in election rallies, participated in NGOs, and was busy with city planning.
It’s all out the window now.
That year saw me transform from a politician to a journalist.
I believe the best thing I can do now is to release such videos every day.
Our team will continue to work for you, releasing actual information daily in Russian, from Russians.
When the time comes, we will come back to being politicians, participating in political campaigns.
We might even be able to unite in a wide liberal political party.
Those are difficult times, and it is important not to get disgruntled by our country or its people.
We will build something good in Russia when the time comes.
Until then, we will continue to increase our audience and talk about recent events every day.
See you tomorrow, or possibly later tonight.