As we were working on this video today, messages were pouring in about the alleged start of the Ukrainian offensive.
There’ve been numerous reports about breaching the Russian defenses. As of now, it’s unclear what’s going on.
If significant changes occur, we’ll release another video today.
Meanwhile, let’s talk about Prigozhin (founder of PMC Wagner) and his rising stakes
in the standoff against the Russian top command.
It all began with PMC Wagner’s troopers cussing at Gen. Valery Gerasimov.
Soon, Prigozhin himself joined the chorus, sniping at Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Now Prigozhin harangues about some “sassy grandpa” who seems to have lost his marbles and “thinks it’s all good.”
Prigozhin isn’t just a founder of his own private army.
He’s also Russia’s biggest media tycoon.
He owns a plethora of media outlets, Telegram channels, and most importantly,
the infamous web brigades of paid trolls and political commentators.
Prigozhin has aced the PR. He’s perfectly aware of how the internet works and what’s trending.
He knows whom posters typically refer to as “grandpa.”
He knows whom he’s addressing. He handpicks derogatory terms on purpose.
He’s deliberately escalating the situation to be heard for once. What does it tell us? He’s extremely desperate.
All else has failed. He realizes: the end is near, and there’s no way out of it.
He’s a dead man walking, so he might as well have fun with it.
Before jumping into details, let’s have a look at the bigger picture.
There’s no use in talking about Prigozhin out of context.
Why does it have to be discussed?
Because war is horror, death, filth, and blood.
The war looks different only in movies, sick imagination, and propagandist rants.
Weapons handed to soldiers aren’t exactly home decor items. Machine guns aren’t meant for cracking open cold ones.
Even war crimes, however grim, aren’t an exclusive trademark of the Russian army or this particular war.
There hasn't been a war without atrocities.
That being said, the way Russia is waging this war, abandoning the unified army in favor of uncontrolled gaggles of
mercenaries, is a truly unique phenomenon. It’s unclear where we begin.
For it’s certain, the stellar screw-up leaked to the public eye is merely the tip of the iceberg. The reality is far worse.
CLUSTERF**K
Let’s talk about the disposition. Russia has its regular army that reports to the Defense Ministry headed by Sergei Shoigu
and to the General Staff under Gen. Valery Gerasimov’s command.
There’s also Gen. Viktor Zolotov’s National Guard.
A few battalions of the National Guard report to Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic.
There’s also “People’s Militias” of the so-called LPR and DPR that formally joined the Russian army after the annexation.
But these units have their own structure and commanders that give Russian army generals a cold shoulder at best.
So far, we’ve only named relatively “official” formations, but how many are there? There’re at least five different players.
Enter Wagner Group, a “private military company” only on paper.
In reality, it’s a bonafide parallel army of 50,000+ troops with its own artillery and airpower.
It’s followed by numerous other PMCs.
We know for certain that Gazprom has one. Presumably, other state corporations do, too.
And the icing on top, there are myriads of smaller military organizations akin to gangs.
Also, there’ve been reports on assembled “regional battalions.” It’s unclear if those are a thing.
It’s still up to field researchers to locate the infamous Sobyanin’s Regiment (named after the Mayor of Moscow).
It seems like mustering up your personal army is easier than setting up a newsstand these days.
The key question here is why the hell they opened that box. Generations of European monarchs lived, ruled, fought,
and died trying to eliminate feudal libertinism.
They strove to make every armed man report exclusively to them, on the off chance
a few rebel counts and dukes invade the capital and seize the throne.
Centuries have been spent for kings to become not only suzerains but the only sources of power in their realms.
That’s how modern centralized states emerged.
No ruler, however libertarian or totalitarian, wouldn’t reverse that process and hand out armies like freebies
at a store’s grand opening. For the monopoly on violence is the definition of power.
This is especially true in Putin’s case. He’s obtained his power through continuous centralization and monopolization.
The top-down power vertical became his obsession, and competition his biggest fear, no matter the field.
So why on earth is he demolishing the foundation of his power? What’s the reason for his inability to control his own troops?
The answer is as simple as it’s ludicrous. We’re dealing with the aftermath of the 2014 proxy war in the Donbas.
Back then, Putin’s plan was denying any Russian participation and creating mysterious “volunteer” brigades.
We’re dealing with farmers who bought uniforms at a military surplus store.
SHOCK THERAPY
There’s an opinion that the control issues with this flying circus kicked off when Prigozhin went overly mouthy.
This isn’t right. It’s known that the LPR and DPR’s commanders fail to conceal their hatred of, and contempt for,
Russian soldiers.
The memory of their brothers-in-arms thrown onto the Ukrainian fortifications is still fresh.
When their regiments are reinforced with Russian mobilized recruits, they return the “favor.”
Like, it’s your turn to drop dead in droves.
This isn’t Prigozhin’s first barb at Putin, either.
The previous instance went unnoticed, but when Putin announced the “Christmas truce” this winter,
Prigozhin responded with “it doesn’t concern the Wagner Group.”
Very few discussed that incident, despite the direct act of insubordination.
Prigozhin could’ve ignored Putin silently, but chose to say out loud,
“The supreme commander’s orders apply to those he’s superior to. And that ain’t us.”
Why is Prigozhin doing this? Well, what options does he have?
As we speak, the Ukrainian army is pressing on the flanks at Bakhmut.
We don’t know what the Ukrainian offensive will bring, but it doesn’t bode well for the Wagner Group in any case.
Wagnerites sustained heavy casualties, lost their convict reinforcements, and hit extreme fatigue levels.
And they’re about to face well-rested, well-trained,
and highly motivated Ukrainian troops carrying NATO arms and equipment.
This isn’t about Wagner’s “shell hunger.” PMC Wagner isn’t an intended target for ammo deprivation.
It’s now simply supplied on the same terms as the rest of the army has been. This is about seeking a scapegoat.
When the inevitable happens and the front crumbles at Bakhmut, someone has to be blamed.
And that’s the right timing for “I told you so!” It’s not my fault, it’s those who denied me troops, shells, and funds.
It’s those who fled their positions and exposed my flanks.
Surreal as that may sound, now the kaleidoscope of various Russian regiments is occupied with one single task:
the blame game.
And while the army’s top brass may whisper into Putin’s ear, Prigozhin can only express himself through the headlines.
Hence the tone and the attitude he’s adopted.
The vile essence of the public's attention is that it constantly craves for escalation. One can’t simply cuss at Gen.
Gerasimov or Shoigu and remain in the spotlight forever. If you need more attention, it’s time to insinuate about Putin.
And he landed his blow with precision for Putin to overlook it.
Right after Putin’s favorite V-Day parade, one of his most prominent combatants publicly discourses
on some “grandpa” who may turn out to be a d**khead.
Such a brazen move can’t be left without consequences.
One can’t shower their boss with a string of F-bombs and insults and expect no repercussions.
DISMISSED?
How will Prigozhin’s confrontation with the Kremlin end? We have no idea.
It’ll be clearer once the Ukrainian offensive is in full swing.
Once the territories are lost, the HR decisions will be made accordingly.
We’ll see who’s going to be the scapegoat to be stripped of ranks and titles.
Precisely, we’ll likely see reshuffles in the army command, and we’ll unlikely see Prigozhin ever again.
What we’re witnessing isn’t a minor situational beef. We’re witnessing the centralized government
with its own hierarchy and chain of command shaking off warts it has grown over the time of war.
The situation we described in the beginning, when everyone is his own general, and the number of Russian armies
fighting in Ukraine is beyond count, isn’t just dire for Shoigu, Gerasimov, or Putin.
It’s perilous for the fabric of the government itself.
It doesn’t matter if we talk about armed men or civil bureaucracy. Such a status quo can’t persist.
Prigozhin isn’t dangerous as a person: he’s not that hard to kill. He’s dangerous as a bad influence.
As a precedent: look, it’s okay to create your own parallel power vertical, manage it as you see fit,
and cuss everyone around with impunity.
Is this okay or not? The Ukrainian offensive will tell.
If the Wagner Group is obliterated and Prigozhin is deemed useless,
it’ll give the generals and civil officials a reason to ask Putin, “Why did you, Mr. President, bolster those thugs?
Why did you let them degrade us? Your only support is the government machine.
No other fellas are allies of yours. They tend to go rogue.”
Moreover, those fellas don’t yield expected results.
What’s the point of being publicly humiliated? Why did we suffer that smearing? Bakhmut’s lost anyway.
This brings us to a counterintuitive conclusion.
Roughly the entire government machine roots for the Wagner Group to be obliterated at Bakhmut.
Because while the Ukrainian army couldn’t care less for marching on Moscow,
a throng of uncontrollable armed goons are far less predictable.
Prigozhin is no fool. He’s perfectly aware how much of a cancer he is on the Russian state’s body.
He realizes they’ll get rid of him when the time is right. He’s got nowhere to run.
And when there’s nowhere to run, raising the stakes isn’t such a bad idea.
Hence his tone. Hence his despair. The enemies at his back are much more menacing than the ones in front.
Those behind him can’t wait to feed him to the Ukrainian army.
The further they’ll advance, the more hysterical Prigozhin will grow.
As for us, observing the infighting will reveal more about the true structure of the Russian state.
See you tomorrow!