As things are unfolding at a breakneck speed, here's a rundown as of 6 AM Moscow time.
Wagner troops are marching on the city of Rostov. Prigozhin mentions a Russian helicopter
that was trying to attack the convoy and was downed.
There's no clear evidence. Unidentified troopers are building up around the Southern Military District premises
and in central Rostov. They're clad in different uniforms with no insignia indicative of the Russian army.
Some experts believe it's the Wagnerites, whereas others presume these are the Defense Ministry troops
put on high alert.
If it's the former, we're waking up to a reality where Wagner easily captures Rostov. It's still too early to tell.
But we're dealing with whatever scarce information we have.
Now, let's move on to the video we recorded three hours ago.
Yesterday was Yevgeny Prigozhin’s day. First, in an unexpected move, he debuted as an anti-war blogger.
Not just that, he almost quoted what we’ve been telling over the past year. It turns out, we’ve been fighting a pointless war,
and it was prompted by the ambitions and vanity of certain elderly people. It turns out — surprise, surprise —
neither NATO nor Ukraine was planning on striking our country.
And Vladimir Putin has been fed disinfo so much so he’s been living in an imaginary world created by his cronies.
It was a disgraceful show to watch Russia get stuck in a pile of s___. Everyone was looking for a miracle.
A tactical nuclear strike, maybe an H-bomb hitting Warsaw. But it wasn’t on the cards.
They’ve never had the balls it takes. The grandpas proved too feeble to walk out of their comfort zone.
Prigozhin literally recapped what I’ve been going on about since it all started.
Importantly, he’s someone who has the ear of the entire Russian army.
We know for a fact soldiers watch his videos from the trenches.
And these soldiers have just been told they’re being killed for someone’s morbid ambitions.
They’re being killed so that Viktor Medvedchuk can be appointed President of Ukraine.
The most wicked individuals are cashing in on their deaths.
That morning statement already qualified as high treason. But Prigozhin was on a roll.
In the evening, Prigozhin posted a video allegedly depicting the aftermath of a missile strike on PMC Wagner’s troops
and announced Wagner’s liberation campaign across Russia to finish off the Russian military top brass.
He called on the Russian army and citizens to join his guys. Technically, he announced a coup.
I won’t pretend I’m the only person in cyberspace that’s privy to what’s going on. Nobody has a clue.
So, let’s just try to unpack what we do know.
IS HE CREDIBLE?
One thing we need to bear in mind is that Yevgeny Prigozhin has a reputation as Russia’s most illustrious internet troll,
PR wizard, and media trickster.
He loves to mislead the public and enjoys an occasional leg-pull. He infiltrated Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation
with his covert associates, staged his own death,
and leaked cock-and-bull stories about himself to the media, only to sue them later.
Prigozhin can’t be believed. He’s the only person who knows what’s on his mind.
You have to tread cautiously when talking about him. Nothing may be what it seems.
As of this recording, the tumultuous events are unfolding only on Prigozhin’s Telegram channel.
We’ve got nothing but statements uttered by someone whose words always speak louder than his actions.
With that in mind, there are no two ways about what he said. He announced an armed rebellion and called for a coup.
The Wagner chief vowed to advance into Russian territory (apparently heading to Moscow)
and forcefully remove the top brass of the Russian army.
According to Prigozhin, his private army is ready to take on the regular army and kill any soldier, should they resist.
Thus, he issued an ultimatum and announced civil war.
We don’t often agree with the FSB, but this time their characterizing it as a call for an armed rebellion is spot-on.
STANDOFF
Now, I suggest we save the “s___ has hit the fan” summary for later.
Let’s first see dwell on the acute overreaction of the Russian government.
In the southern city of Rostov, conscripts are being handed out weapons,
while Moscow police launched Operation Fortress.
Odd stuff. Operation Fortress was previously used to prevent unarmed defense attorneys and families of detainees from
entering police stations.
So, on the off chance armed people show up, they’ll go, “Sorry, today is a public holiday, the office is closed.”
It may well be the case. Jokes aside, the “justice march” hasn’t yet kicked off. It’s just Prigozhin speaking.
But the government has already been scared s___less and is seeking the nearest tornado shelter.
Suppose 25,000 armed goons who have nothing to lose are indeed marching toward Moscow.
Thoughts? Everyone combat-ready is fighting in Ukraine. But even they may not be that loyal to their higher-ups.
The latter are fat conference room generals feeding them with expired MREs,
treating them as cannon fodder, stealing their underwear, and lying all along.
Instead, they may show more loyalty to the outspoken Prigozhin who’s nothing short of a self-proclaimed
commissioner for servicemen’s rights.
Whether the Russian army will be fighting Wagner or joining the group to take a tour of the magnificent
palaces sponsored by the blood and guts of dead Russian soldiers is up for debate.
Who else can take on Prigozhin? The Russian Guard? The cops? Maybe, the FSB?
On the one hand, they have 100s of thousands of armed men. On the other hand, we’ve seen them in action.
We saw their faces turn pale and their lips tremble once they’re challenged by an armed enemy instead of a skinny
student at a protest rally armed with a red solo cup whom they’ll eagerly beat to a pulp and lock up a year later.
The entire length of the road connecting the Belarusian border to Kyiv suburbs is dotted with the bodies
of what used to be the Russian Guard, immortalizing the uselessness of cosplay warriors.
And suddenly, we see them freaking out. From military hardware inundating Moscow streets to bumbling generals
urging Wagner to stop their “convoys” (what convoys are they babbling about?),
their panic is indicative of one thing only.
The Russian government realizes its frailty. Their top-down power vertical is made of cheap plastic.
They know full well that a thunderous sneeze will reduce this mighty law enforcement clique busting folks
over social media posts to a pile of pistachio fluff.
It’s like Maleficent jumped out of a TV screen and triggered panic mode nationwide.
Nothing has effectively happened, but the government structures have already quivered as if a state-of-the-art
alien army was attacking a small prairie tribe.
Prigozhin’s phenom is one-of-a-kind both for Russian history and for the history of all centralized states.
Never has a state voluntarily chopped off a thick slice of its monopoly on the use of force,
thus birthing a serious opponent. But that’s one aspect.
On the other hand, Russia has treated Yevgeny Prigozhin just like it treated anyone heedless enough to be
dealing with it in the past. Until recently, the Wagner chief’s job description was one of a cannon fodder supplier.
As long as his faithful convicts were putting a strain on the Ukrainian army at Bakhmut,
while the Defense Ministry was busy building fortifications and mobilizing recruits,
Prigozhin was enjoying a blank check. He was dropping big fat F-bombs on the Russian generals.
He forged alliances with governors and leaders of political parties. He unveiled the Wagner Center in St. Petersburg.
He felt like a state within a state or like a Vladimir Putin action figure.
Gleeful Russian officials taking pictures with Prigozhin’s notorious sledgehammer was trending,
if only for a short while. Ramzan Kadyrov joined forces with Prigozhin to lay into General Lapin.
At one point, Prigozhin claimed the son of Putin’s spokesman had joined Wagner on the battlefield.
He went public with it. The son of the Russian president’s spokesman served in the illegal gang.
And the spokesman had no other option but to confirm the fact.
Long story short, the Russian state did its utmost for Prigozhin to feel exceptional and eventually start losing it.
When it came to battlefield updates, Prigozhin was more than just another talking head.
He was a major pro-war speaker. While the Defense Ministry was repeatedly caught lying, the likes of Col. Igor Girkin
and Prigozhin’s Telegram channels became the go-to source for many.
It goes without saying that, unlike the MoD whose levels of BS have almost driven them to the brink of implosion,
Prigozhin exerts considerable influence, including on frontline troops.
But once the Defense Ministry prevented the front from collapsing at the expense of Prigozhin’s expendable
convict troops, beefed up the manpower, and finished the defensive fortifications, Prigozhin was sold down the river.
They ordered the mercenaries to sign contracts with the MoD, which is tantamount to a death sentence for Prigozhin.
His private army will have to merge with the regular forces. Without the thousands-strong private army of loyal convicts
whose parole was facilitated by Prigozhin himself, he’s an X Factor contestant without a mic.
His solitary cell at a supermax will be missing a bunk bed.
The Russian state wants him to be six feet under, preferably without a tombstone.
This fact alone shows that the current development isn’t quite the comedic act it may look like. It’s dangerous, too.
Prigozhin is aware of the impending doom, and he’s taking his chances.
A 90% lethal outcome or a 100% lethal outcome, an attempted coup or a submissive wait for your
truck to be peppered with bullets. That’s exactly how a Russian-installed Kherson official died last year.
Yes, as of 2 AM Moscow time, many dismiss it as a storm in a teacup and a social media mutiny.
But both are being stirred by someone who has nothing to lose. There’s no turning back after his earlier statements.
Either he worms his way out, or he’s a dead duck.
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Russian state stays true to itself. It used Prigozhin and then tried to discard him. But there was a catch.
While carrying out this stratagem, the state has helped create a rogue private army in the process.
Prigozhin is no bogus presidential hopeful fielded to allegedly oppose Putin, only to end up humiliated.
Prigozhin relies on armed men choosing between life and death.
Understandably, they don’t want to die for free once they’ve fallen out of favor.
Armed thugs are worse than influential former oligarchs who were lured and then bamboozled by Putin’s system.
Sure, it’s too early to make predictions. This can be a long-winded plot with plenty of twists.
These guys are going all-in, and the odds of their success are anyone’s guess.
As of now, we know several things. Armored vehicles are driving around central Moscow.
Prigozhin’s large media empire that used to work hand in hand with the Russian propaganda has turned against it.
A lot of warmongers, pro-war reporters, and soldiers on the ground prefer Prigozhin over the regular army.
Nothing of essence has happened, but the country is entering a civil war.
Armed vehicles blocking downtown Moscow were last spotted in the 1993 clashes.
Hence the corollary question. We should ask the endorsers of Putin’s regime and the masterminds behind those
stratagems that led to a terrible and senseless war: Are you happy, you slimy bastards?
What about the capture of Kyiv? How was your outing against NATO?
Where’s the part of Europe you sought to seize control of?
You’re a bunch of deluded schemers capable of boneless bragging.
What made you stir up this truckload of crap, you lowlifes?
You could’ve kept watching your nuke-themed animated cartoons till doom, but you opted to act.
You’re worthless geostrategists. Are you putting on the shotcallers’ shoes for real?
Have you mistaken oil prices for the nation’s greatness? Now make sure to face the music.
It was near-impossible to turn Russia into a failed state.
Too much money, too many resources, and too many college-educated people.
You could’ve been siphoning off the budgets forever without ever unsheathing your axe.
But you unsheathed it and struck us all on the legs.
You richly deserve any consequences that will ensue.
The bad news is, millions of Russians will be sharing them with your scumbag tribe.
An ex-con has thrown down the gauntlet, and your response is mumbling generals begging him to stop.
That must Government 101 for you. That’s the new Russia.
We’ll be following the developments. See you later, I guess.