Throughout the night, Russia was being hit by a series of explosions.
In the northwestern Pskov Region, a military airfield was attacked.
As of this recording, several other regions sustained unspecified damage from UAVs.
Crimea reports about repelling a naval drone onslaught.
By the looks of it, it’s been the worst attack on the Russian military assets by Ukrainian UAVs so far.
As of this recording, there are no reports of the injured or dead,
but a lot of military assets are said to have been destroyed. Let’s talk about it today.
The previous strikes at the Moscow International Business Center weren’t important militarily.
Their real implication was that the capital of the country that had been dishing out military threats to NATO was
constantly under attack while the supreme leader could do nothing about it.
The so-called red lines became the butt of the joke.
The effects of such attacks do have an impact on part of the public.
But there was a catch. The public that could be impacted by such news, namely,
those who were engaged in saber-rattling and sought to fight the world,
have been hurt and humiliated already over the past 18 months.
It can’t be the case that Ukraine has been investing in the production of drones and launching them on targets
of no military value just to spite the pro-war bloggers and their audiences.
For Ukraine, trolling somebody else must be beside the point in this war.
A lot of military experts were inclined to think it was testing of sorts carried out in enemy territory.
Like, it was the way for Ukraine to fine-tune their UAVs while doing recon,
testing the air defense systems’ locations and capabilities,
and choosing the most vulnerable flight paths.
Experts suggested that mostly harmless strikes on the Kremlin and the Moscow Business Center would soon
give way to attacks on military assets or even critical dual-purpose infrastructure and that multiple
strikes deep into Russian territory would ensue.
The indications are that this time may have come.
A couple of weeks ago, “drone strikes” connoted several bashed windows.
But over the past few days, Russia has lost at least three crazy expensive
and rare aircraft that were based on airfields deep into Russian territory.
One of them was a supersonic heavy strategic bomber (the last model was produced nearly 30 years ago).
Yesterday, at least four Ilyushin Il-76 military transport aircraft were added to the tally.
The freighters weren’t struck on the battlefield or at the Ukrainian border.
No, they were charred on an airfield apron near Pskov, almost 600 miles away
from the nearest Ukrainian military. It was a fiery inferno if footage shot by the locals is anything to go by.
The early reports claim that, on top of the aircraft, a fuel depot was ravaged.
But it didn’t stop there.
Multiple strikes resulted in the Moscow airspace over Moscow’s three major international airports being closed.
Explosions rocked the Bryansk and Ryazan regions of Russia.
By the looks of it, yesterday’s attack was the worst strike on Russian territory so far.
DEEP INTO RUSSIAN TERRITORY
What’s the bad news for Putin’s army and his regime?
The worst part of it is that there’s no acceptable, let alone good, explanation for it.
If the drones have come from Ukrainian territory, it means that, one,
Ukraine now has high-precision long-range powerful weapons capable of causing damage comparable
to that of cruise missiles. Two, Russia’s air defense systems can do nothing about these weapons.
What if some of these Western experts are right and Ukraine is indeed using saboteurs armed
with small kamikaze drones? If that’s true, it turns out that Ukraine has built a powerful
and sophisticated secretive agent network.
And the entire top-down power vertical of Russian intelligence funded
with eye-watering amounts of money is really powerless to counter them.
Either way, Ukraine looks impressively successful, whereas Russia is failing with all of its army
and intelligence resources.
Neither scenario sounds good. It’s either enemy drones effortlessly covering north of 500 miles or enemy
saboteurs swarming over your territory unimpeded.
The propaganda strategy has changed, too.
As the first Ukrainian drones hit Russian territory, like the strike on the military airfield in the Saratov Region,
every single propagandist was shooting vitriol and demanding retaliation.
By contrast, these recent attacks are simply being denied.
Understandably, the propaganda has a hard time explaining it all away in the absence of a theory
that would be less than horrible. But what about Ukraine? What does it achieve by striking Russia’s deep rear?
The direct effect is destroying war resources like aircraft, helis, ammo depots, and fuel tanks.
Oftentimes, as is the case with costly aircraft, these resources are non-renewable.
Unlike a main battle tank, a large military transport aircraft can’t be built in a week.
The production rates for new aircraft can’t match those of losses when the enemy is hitting your fleet
on a regular basis. That’s unfeasible. And it’s not the Russian manufacturers — no one is up to the job.
But even that’s beside the point. It’s not just about disabling heavy strategic bombers.
It’s more about the expansion of the danger zone.
Each attack on an airfield is followed by the complete relocation of the aircraft.
Two days later, the satellite images of the area show nothing but concrete slabs.
Thus, every strike disrupts military logistics. Now, relocating aircraft may seem like an easy job. But it isn’t.
Besides the planes, you need to move pilots, spare parts, maintenance teams, and, last but not least, ammo depots.
Airbases for strategic bombers, fighter jets, and military freighters as well as the missiles and bombs
they are supposed to carry should only be located in the vicinity of the aircraft.
Such moves take time. But when you’re dealing with the enormous bureaucratic chicanery of the Russian army,
such moves take a hell of a lot of time.
During such periods, Russian aircraft are rendered unable to launch missiles,
drop bombs, or carry military cargo.
The same goes for any other military asset. It doesn’t have to be razed.
A single strike means the asset is within reach and needs to be relocated to safety.
It requires changes to and expansion of supply lines.
This means some units will end up without ammo, some tanks will be sitting without fuel,
and some personnel will be left without MREs.
Striking the deep rear and destroying homefront logistics and infrastructure isn’t just part of psychological warfare.
It’s a fruitful act militarily. When Russia has strategic bombers capable of safely attacking Ukraine
out of Russian airspace and this can go on forever, it’s one thing.
It’s a whole different story, though, when you have to constantly relocate them to avert drone strikes.
This lowers both the intensity and the efficiency of the air raids.
Now, they no longer take off and land where they fit best and where there is enough infrastructure.
They seek to stay undetected and unscathed.
There’s a difference between fighting on your home soil and waging a colonial-style war
as if it were taking place on a different continent where you have a robust and perfectly safe homefront.
But early into the war, Ukraine shattered this concept.
Just recall an audacious strike of Ukrainian helicopters delivered at an oil depot in southern Russia.
It happened in late March 2022, one month into the hostilities.
But it’s now abundantly clear that border regions are anything but safe.
Regular shillings, including artillery barrages, are nothing new to the locals. But Ukraine is going further.
It’s crucial for them that no place that could be used for homefront purposes, at least in western Russia,
should be a safe haven.
So that any location that could house an airfield apron or an ammo depot can be in jeopardy.
As of this recording, the full scope of damage inflicted on Russia last night is unknown.
However, what we do know is enough to draw conclusions.
If Ukraine is out to destabilize Russia’s homefront and render any location, however distant from Ukraine,
unsafe for the army assets, it appears to be en route to success.
As for the Russian regime, it seems to be clueless as to the ways out of the bloody mess
it started in the first place.
See you tomorrow!