Save for the southern theater, the battlefield has been locked into a stalemate.
The Ukrainian army carries on with a slow-burner of an offensive.
That's when word got out that Ukraine would be supplied with F-16 jets.
The questions remain, though. How many, which ones, and when?
Western media have repeatedly claimed that F-16s will bolster Ukraine's offensive effort
and make the southern theater that's now punctuated with Russia's air supremacy an even-steven battle.
In reality, though, it's unlikely that F-16s will be an instant game-changer
or considerably affect the current stage of the Ukrainian offensive.
They will have arrived after the current offensive is over.
Moreover, the training for Ukrainian pilots will only commence in September.
Most likely, it'll take place in the Netherlands and Romania.
But before that, the pilots will need to take language courses.
The thing is, many Ukrainian jet pilots as well as Ukrainian military overall dabble in English.
It goes without saying Ukraine does have proficient interpreters, but they don't have perfect grasp of the military and tech jargon.
That's the real timeframes for the training are iffy.
To say nothing of the complexity of the courses.
First, the pilots will get the hang of the hardware, electronics, and controls, like when to push which buttons.
They'll need to get used to the controls' layout in the cockpit.
Then they'll be familiarized with the aircraft's software.
And only then will they be able to test-fly the jets.
That is, they'll be mastering the tactical maneuvers the specific jet is capable of and simulate combat missions.
Only at this point will it be possible to put a finger on the specific timeframes of their combat readiness.
It's not just the pilots that'll be getting the training but maintenance personnel, too, those who inspect the jets,
perform pre-flight checklists, and fix possible issues.
To make matters worse, ground personnel may take longer to train.
And there's something else that's relevant for this F-16 conversation.
Let's say tomorrow 20 or 30 U.S.-made jets piloted and serviced by well-trained personnel arrive in Ukraine.
It doesn't mean they'll be deployed right away.
To be able use them, you also need ground infrastructure and purpose-built maintenance facilities for the new birds.
Military experts believe that the full cycle of the F-16 integration into the Ukrainian fleet will take years.
If so, why then did Kyiv insisting on these supplies?
What's the point, if any, of them being used in the current day and age?
To answer these questions, we'll need to rewind the events to Feb. 24, 2022.
The ongoing war is different from other military conflicts of the past 30 years in aerial warfare.
So, first, we'll need to explore what makes it stand out.
Invasion
Every military college alumnus or alumna knows that air supremacy is key to winning most military conflicts.
You have a lethal sword in planes and helicopters.
And then there's an air defense shield that helps against enemy aviation.
That's why over the past 50 years, the army that starts the war seeks to disable enemy air defense systems and aviation
before it can get airborne.
That was roughly what the Russian command planned on doing.
The Iskander and Kalibr missiles as well as the Russian bomber jets were supposed to blind Ukrainian air defense systems
by disabling the ground-based air surveillance radars.
This would've rendered Ukraine unable to protect its airspace from the invasion of Russian fighter jets.
Then, Russian pilots and air defense personnel would've had no problem detecting and downing what few planes Ukraine had.
As of the start of the invasion, Ukraine only had 70 fighter jets and around 60 assault jets.
Which was less than Russia's arsenal by an order of magnitude.
By mid-2019, Russia had around 1,000 fighter jets and assault planes.
That's not to say all of those were perfectly combat-ready,
but the odds of Ukrainian aviation surviving the fight were negligently low.
Worse still, Ukraine's fleet was chiefly comprised of 1980s aircraft.
The most recent one was produced in 1991.
Conversely, Russian pilots had more advanced jets equipped with better radars and carrying longer-range missiles.
They were capable of downing Ukrainian planes before those could even detect their Russian counterparts.
Between Feb. 24 and mid-March 2022, the Russian aviation killed 32 Ukrainian planes.
But the Russian command underestimated Ukrainian air defense systems.
They withstood the early onslaught and then proceeded to downing Russian jets and helicopters by dozens.
Aerial offensives took a heavy toll on the Russian combat aviation.
After a while, the Russian Air Force had to vacate Ukrainian airspace
just to avoid losing all of its state-of-the-art airpower
and its aces and thus raze 20 years' worth of R&D in an attempt to finish off the Ukrainian aviation.
True, the Ukrainian army couldn't challenge Russia's air supremacy.
Yet, they used their air defense systems to protect their airspace.
This resulted in Russia's failure to convert its air supremacy.
And this affected the course of the war.
The blitz operation akin to the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein was no longer on the cards.
The war in Ukraine wasn't like the Syrian operation
where the Russian Air Force were obliterating the rebels' HQs and fortifications for years, as if they'd been doing the drills.
That's how the current aerial warfare stood out from the rest of the military conflicts of the past 30 years.
Both countries' airpower doesn't engage in direct standoffs.
Instead, they are trying to strike from afar.
The Russian-Ukrainian border as well as both sides of the frontline are peppered with air defense and electronic warfare systems
that can only be breached by UAVs as opposed to jets or helicopters.
While bomber jets launch long-range missiles and precision-guided bombs from high altitudes
and far from the frontlines making them undiscoverable by air defense systems,
both Russian and helicopters are being used as aerial cannons of sorts.
They approach the frontline at a super-low altitude, fire missiles at ground targets,
and flee the scene before enemy AA gunners can launch their missiles.
For assault jet and helicopter crews, every mission is high-risk.
At least one aerial piece is gunned down by each side almost every month.
F-16s: Not a Game-Changer?
Western experts believe that the deployment of several dozen F-16s won’t considerably affect the course of this war.
At least several hundred such jets are needed to bring about noticeable changes.
Moreover, dozens of sophisticated jets will do little to disable the Russian AA systems.
They won't be able to make it past the frontline, attack Crimea, or destroy enemy HQs deep into enemy territory.
Worse, they won't be of immediate help in advancing the offensive effort in the southern theater.
If there's a single rule-of-thumb piece of advice we can share with you when it comes to analyzing military predictions, it's this.
As soon as you hear that there's a wonder-weapon that will lead to instant breakthroughs and deadly pockets,
be sure it's gibberish.
Modern warfare is such that no single magic, however sophisticated, pill can turn the tables on the way the war is being waged.
Not to mention that it would take a stretch to call F-16s state-of-the-art machines.
By Western standards, these are already outdated models.
That said, they still compare well against the Russian aviation.
But we'll have to wait and see them in action.
Importantly, Russian pilots operate the aircraft they have intimate knowledge of.
They know their limits as well as their upsides and downsides.
By contrast, Ukrainian pilots will have difficulty adjust to these new F-16s.
The transfer of these NATO jets to Ukraine seeks two goals: a short-term one and a long-term one.
Right now, the Ukrainian Air Force can limit their losses by using solid Western-made tech, however outdated.
After all, F-16s are fourth-generation multi-purpose fighter jets.
Their radars and missiles will enable pilots to strike Russia's ground and maritime targets
before the plane can even be detected by ground-based or ship-mounted air defense systems.
They'll also ramp up Ukrainian battlefield capabilities.
F-16s prove to be more immune to the jamming of the Russian electronic warfare devices.
This will allow for more precise aiming.
Besides, the use of F-16s isn't only limited to that of high-altitude cannons.
Ukrainian pilots will be able to detect and destroy Russian aviation
as well as incapacitate Russian drones and missiles outside of the frontline.
Simply put, they can double as airborne air defense systems.
This will bring relief to ground-based air defense capabilities, which can be, in turn,
diverted to protecting Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure from missile attacks.
Ukraine is already preparing for Russia's relaunched infrastructure strikes in the fall
as Russia seeks to obliterate central heating and power and water supply systems before the winter season.
But the long-term effect is strategically even more important.
The F-16 supplies will re-equip the Ukrainian fleet with Western models.
It means the Ukrainian army will gain access to a wide range of Western-made air missiles
and other armaments as well as detection systems and software.
You can't equip F-16s with Soviet-made products.
They are only compatible with Western-made missiles radars, and software.
This will allow Ukraine to readjust to NATO standards in practice.
Therefore, a transition to F-16s will be a step into the future.
It's not just a switch to a specific Western-made fighter jet type — it's a transition to Western piloting discipline.
According to Nikolai Beleskov, a Ukrainian military expert,
Ukraine has lodged two requests for these jets: a bolder one for 128 pieces and a modest one for 48 pieces.
These will make up for roughly four squadrons Ukraine has lost.
Both Beleskov and Western experts agree
that F-16s will help the Ukrainian Air Force beef up its capabilities against its Russian counterpart in the longer run.
Even though the closed-airspace strategy will be in place in Ukraine for a long while,
the slow confrontation, such as the drone war, is ongoing.
And Russia's potential both in airpower and ground forces is still far bigger.
For instance, Russia has long-range S-400 air defense systems that are capable of targeting F-16s.
These are located in Belarus, along the Russian-Ukrainian border, and near the frontlines.
There are other air defense systems that reduce Ukrainian airborne capabilities largely to Ukraine's own airspace.
In addition, Russia is attempting to destroy Ukrainian aviation by firing cruise missiles at military airfields.
Ukrainian pilots are forced to relocate and hide their missile caches.
Russian pro-war media suggest F-16s will make things difficult for such maneuvers.
They claim the F-16 landing gear, just like that of any Western-made jets,
aren't designed to land on reinforced concrete strips of Ukrainian airfields.
According to these media, Ukraine will require softer concrete landing strips.
Moreover, Russian military experts even identified the best-surfaced Ukrainian airfields.
First, they excluded smaller airfields and then those that are within Russia’s AA range.
The resulting list of facilities compatible with F-16 landing gears includes airfields
in Odesa, Lviv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Uzhgorod, which now make good targets for Russian missiles.
Right now, with F-16s out of combat action, aerial warfare looks as follows.
On the one hand, Ukrainian airspace is solidly shielded by air defense systems,
so much so that Russian aviation stands no chance of breaching it.
On the other hand, Ukrainian aviation is currently too weak to try its luck.
On top of it, Russia has more capabilities to strike Ukrainian aircraft
and therefore solidify its superiority by destroying the aviation and disabling air defense systems.
The latter can be done by alternate drone and missile attacks.
As soon as the AA shield collapses, Russia will be able to activate its best air force capabilities.
Air defense systems are now safeguarding the Ukrainian army’s resistance efforts
and even the liberation of Ukrainian territories.
Right now, it’s critical for Ukraine to step up its airpower to prevent Russia from annihilating this AA shield.
Aerial warfare follows the same logic as does the war on the whole.
No large breakthroughs are looming in the distance anytime soon.
But we can witness new ways to even out the power balance.
That’s exactly the purpose of future F-16 supplies.
At least, that’s how it looks now.
See you tomorrow!