We’re used to occasional video messages from the mobilized,
contract servicemen, volunteers, and their families.
Dozens of men in the woods, in a trench, or in front of ruins, and one speaks for them all.
He asks to deal with the commanders, and sort out equipment, ammo, and provision shortages.
He complains about salaries none of them has seen.
The bottom line is, “We don’t want to die in suicidal assaults as cannon fodder.”
Perhaps everyone who saw them thought,
“No one’s going to help you.
No one’s shielding you from death. You have nothing to lose, why don’t you flee?”
One would argue they don’t run in fear of repressions, barrier troops, and jail.
In reality, they do flee.
Thousands go AWOL, don’t come back from vacations, or abandon their posts.
Some drop their weapons,
some grab as many guns as possible to stay alive and sell the surplus.
They leave solo or in groups.
We can’t tell the number of Russian army deserters.
Garrison court sentences serve as indirect evidence.
According to Mediazona,
3,000+ soldiers have been sentenced for going AWOL since September, 2022.
This doesn’t mean there’re 3,000 deserters.
This means 3,000 were captured and sent to courts.
The real number is likely to be much higher.
“Get Lost” project shared stories of people they managed to help out.
The project assists those who've been drafted, and those who strive to avoid it.
Potential conscripts may get legal, psychological, and, in some cases, financial aid.
11,000+ people have received help already.
The project’s link is in the description.
Today we’ll talk about desertion and its role in modern Russia.
DESERTION SUCCESS STORIES
One day the government decides to value you not as a citizen and a taxpayer,
with useful skills and knowledge,
but as cannon fodder.
Chances are, you’re not ready for it.
You’re caught off guard, and there’re no good options.
“I had no choice” is the top explanation of how soldiers
– the mobilized, volunteers, and contract servicemen alike – ended up at the front.
I wound up at the enlistment office on day one, Sept. 21, 2022.
HR at work asked me to swing by,
and I obediently went to the recruitment office afterwards, which I regretted.
In my defense, it all happened in a heartbeat, I had no time to think or prove my point.
After 20 hours at the assessment center I was sent to the front.
My wife and I seriously considered shirking the draft notice
and doing a few years in jail instead.
But then news came out about mobilization of the cons,
so I had to go [to Ukraine].
At first, you may believe it’s a mistake, and your age or physique will convince the officers that you’re no soldier.
and your age or physique will convince the officers that you’re no soldier.
But soon you realize that one doesn’t have to be a beefcake to join the cannon fodder ranks.
You won't last long anyway.
Soon my chronic condition worsened.
It’d be evident if the health check wasn’t a mere formality.
My leg began to fail, so they sent me to the hospital.
After the surgery, I was thrown back to trenches, literally in stitches.
Naturally, a relapse happened soon.
I managed to negotiate 15 days off to complete my treatment.
I went through another health check that didn’t change anything.
The doctor declared me fit after a military officer told him to.
And then war reveals itself to you.
We were tasked with holding back the offensive.
Digging trenches, to put it simply.
The conditions were dire, we had no food or water.
In winter, we melted snow so we had something to drink.
I have no words to describe the situation at the front.
To illustrate, my platoon quickly reduced to just two people.
The others went MIA or were wounded.
It was a complete screw-up, a pointless bloodbath.
At morning briefings, our commander called us cannon fodder,
and our job was to “smoke cannon fodder on the other side.”
Every tent had a seasoned vet that strongly suggested we murder children and old people,
because “the AFU use them as a human shield.”
They didn’t teach us defensive tactics.
They taught us murder and terrorism.
How to conceal a hand grenade under a corpse.
How to set boobie traps.
They told us if we were abandoned in a village, our job would be to massacre the locals.
Once they sent us to an airport to unload crates with grenade launchers.
Instead, we found dead bodies inside.
It seemed to you that you had no choice but to join the war.
Now you realize, you have no choice but get out of it.
It became evident off the bat that my only option was to go AWOL and leave the country.
I chose not to get back there to kill and die.
I left my place of registration and moved apartments a few times.
It didn’t work, I was nabbed by my building.
They took me to the military commandant, released me on bail,
and pressed criminal charges against me.
I contacted the “Get Lost” project in search of a lawyer.
They provided an excellent one.
Clearly, I had three options: the military, jail, or emigration.
I chose the latter, and “Get Lost” assisted me again.
These aren’t your typical defectors’ stories.
These are the lucky bunch.
They were more informed, they managed to get help and leave Russia.
They had resources their peers often lack.
Yet even they stress out what a terrible experience their escape was,
and how lost they are upon success.
To say that I was nervous while crossing the border would be an understatement.
I quivered my toes to conceal my fear.
I chose to cross the border at night so I could be asleep.
I pulled it off.
I shied away from every man in uniform
I managed to cross the border, so I’m safe now.
I’m trying to come to my senses and figure out what’s next.
I’d like to quote one story in its entirety.
It stands out: it’s told by a volunteer.
It’s about how a man evolves from war stereotypes
to understanding its freakish nature.
My childhood dream was to fight war.
Not just to complete military training, I wanted to partake in hostilities.
I thought about Wagner Group, but they weren’t desperate to hire everyone at the time.
In August 2022, I volunteered to join the army.
At the enlistment office, they offered to join a Cossack tank regiment near my hometown.
I signed a 4 month contract.
10 days later, I crossed the Ukrainian border.
I’ll never forget that night.
We traversed through the woods, it was all quiet,
but as soon as we crossed a bridge, fires stretched beyond the horizon.
It dawned on me how moronic my childhood dream was.
4 months later, in December, I told the chief of staff I was ready to go home.
He yelled at me, like, “Get back to the front, boy!” In a way, I was lucky.
Some were sent to pointless assaults as punishment for trying to escape.
Serving in the infantry wasn’t a walk in the park.
Everyone was smashed, booze was everywhere, murder and rape were commonplace.
Once again I was at the forefront of defense.
I dreamed about hearing “It’s your vacation time.”
I couldn’t believe it when I did.
We all wished each other to never come back.
Those who did were considered buttheads.
As soon as I reached home,
I contacted various organizations looking for a way to never come back there.
When I heard of “Get Lost,” I contacted them.
I had no choice but emigration.
I nearly fainted during airport check-in.
My passport had seen better days, it was all soggy.
As they told me off for its condition,
I thought, “I don’t give a s**t, I just want to bail!”
SOCIAL ASPECTS
First things first.
In Today’s Russia, desertion is no longer marginalized or condemned.
Most Russians stay aloof from war, and have no opinion on the matter.
Very few would denounce those who strive to survive.
If you or your beloved ones consider this option, you must know there’s nothing wrong with abandoning a heinous war.
you must know there’s nothing wrong with abandoning a heinous war.
Deserting from the aggressor army isn’t a crime but heroism.
Many German cities erected monuments to deserters.
They too made a difficult choice between loyalty to Hitler’s regime and their conscience.
You’re on the right when you choose your and others’ lives.
What does science have to say about it?
Desertion has been a subject for social studies for decades.
There’re factors that can restrain or provoke it.
It’s known that discriminated groups are more likely to abandon their positions.
These are national, racial, and religious minorities,
and those conscripted from occupied territories.
Foul Russian authorities’ practices come to mind.
As a result, the bulk of the Russian army consists of residents of depressed regions,
new citizens from Central Asia who rushed to obtain Russian passports amidst the war, and almost the entire DPR and LPR’s male population.
and almost the entire DPR and LPR’s male population.
Social vulnerability comes before nationality here.
If you hail from an impoverished area or were recently granted citizenship
and had no time to assimilate, your death is unlikely to be noticed or stir civil unrest.
But these people quickly understand this isn’t their war, and it’s pointless to die for someone else’s ambitions.
and it’s pointless to die for someone else’s ambitions.
Such realization makes dropping weapons and leaving the ranks an easier decision.
It’s also known that morale of a particular unit affects the number of deserters.
Pronounced spirit of brotherhood and mutual assistance lessens the number of defectors,
especially if the unit is composed of people of similar origin.
When soldiers tend to rely on and support each other, desertion is seen as unacceptable.
When morale is low, war goals are ambiguous, and the commanders aren’t trustworthy,
the same mutual assistance may render individual desertion collective.
They just bail as a whole unit alongside those who wouldn’t dare to do it on their own.
The aforementioned video messages are always collective.
Viewers believe the best course of action for those soldiers is fleeing.
Trust me, they believe so, too.
At some point, we won’t see those addresses to Putin
(which often are not only pointless, but aggravate the situation).
Instead, soldiers will go AWOL en masse,
or even run away to the rear to wait for better times.
An increasing number of deserters provokes further desertion.
Troops abandoning positions in numbers indicate that the army
and society don’t consider the war just anymore.
Participation ceases to be socially approved.
Naturally, the extent of staff’s belief in war objectives impacts the number of defectors,
that’s why ideological brainwashing in the army is as routine as drills.
But propaganda is effective only when aligned with success on the battlefield.
When war has no goals and casualties are heavy, spry fibbing gets annoying.
Especially when propagandists live in their fairyland where they’re about to capture Prague and Berlin.
Picture is very different at the front.
After a year in filthy trenches under barrages,
the infantry can’t enter a regional center, let alone a European capital.
By now, the Russian army and society have reached an invisible line.
A year ago, the mobilization drive was announced.
In December 2022, Putin mentioned a rotation system in the army.
In June, 2023, he mumbled something about bringing the boys home without any defined deadlines.
But when it becomes clear they’re stuck there until the end,
when they realize the command lied to them again, many will resort to escape.
Because they truly won’t have anything to lose.
The system is at the point when it doesn’t matter if another mobilization will take place.
If it doesn’t, soldiers will abandon their positions due to fatigue and discontent.
If it does, males of conscription age will go into hiding.
Over the last year, people learned to connect war with death or disability at best.
They saw soldiers’ video messages and obituaries,
and heard stories of those who didn’t return four-limbed.
Almost everyone knows a casualty among their social circle.
The system realizes the peril of mass desertion.
The problem concerns the top brass, as we can see from Putin’s statement,
when he doubts the mobilized will come back from vacations.
Yet the decision to provide them regularly has been made.
According to Putin, it’s all good, soldiers report back after their time off.
We can’t be certain if it’s true, but the issue bothers the authorities, and understandably so.
If desertion becomes a mass phenomenon, no repressions will tackle it.
They work when defectors are measured in thousands.
Methods like courts, intimidation, sermons on patriotism, and torture still yield results.
The rowdiest can be sent on enemy positions in the first line.
But if the number gets too high, the system will crack.
You can’t catch ‘em all.
RESTLESS THOUSANDS
Recently, political scientists discuss a revolutionary situation in Russia,
even though its possibility had been denied for decades.
Let’s dig deeper.
One of the key components of a potential uprising is the population's age composition.
The younger the population, the higher the chances.
Demographers term it the “youth bulge,” referring to the shape on the graph.
Also, high unemployment rates among young men increases the risk of violence and revolution.
How do people imagine revolution?
Let’s take 1917’s St. Petersburg.
People picture sailors and soldiers firing at will.
And this isn’t wrong.
Average age in St. Petersburg in the early 20th century was about 20 years.
Most of the youth were men.
Many had recently moved from the countryside.
They hadn’t adapted to city life, their wages were low, and they were easily marginalized.
They had nothing to lose, there were up to any hustle.
Such a society is susceptible to new ideas.
Communism? Wow! Let’s do it! National Socialism? Awesome! I’m game!
Modern Russian society is quite different.
Population is aged, and women outnumber men.
An average Russian is a 40+ woman.
She doesn’t riot, she has a mortgage to pay and offspring to bring up.
Such a society doesn’t kick revolutions off, it’d rather protest peacefully.
They’d even clean the square after the demonstration.
So why talk about a revolutionary situation, if our society isn’t prone to revolts.
Because Putin conducted a savage social experiment by starting the war.
He disregarded demographic indicators
and turned 300,000+ mature and even elderly men into raving revolutioneers.
This isn’t only about deserters.
It’s also about the wounded, soldiers on leave,
mercenaries, and ex-cons pardoned for their military service.
Soon, vets will follow suit.
Many will have health issues like PTSD.
Some, like deserters, are forced to live on other side of the law,
avoiding legal employment or showing their face to CCTV.
A year ago, they had families, jobs, social connections,
and obligations – all that makes people stable and predictable.
They had a lot to lose and live for.
The war vexed and traumatized them, it made them restless.
The war taught them to shoot others.
They saw violence as an effective argument,
and learned that death is tolerable when it happens to someone else.
Their social capital is wasted.
A car mechanic will return from the war as a stormtrooper
who’s used to making $2000 instead of $500 they pay at the repair shop.
Mere existence of people with violent experiences changes the situation.
Violence spreads across the country like plague by those who got accustomed to it at the front.
It can’t be contained inside the so-called “new territories”.
It’ll be omnipresent.
But this isn’t the only outcome.
A society infiltrated by desperate people with traumatic experiences
and lost social connections are a fail-safe recipe for civil disorder.
That’s the definition of a revolutionary situation:
social discontent and a good chunk of daredevils with nothing to lose.
At the same time, Putin’s regime treats the population like a toothpaste tube.
It always strives to squeeze more:
more loyalty, more volunteers, more money for the war effort.
Not every revolutionary situation ends in a revolution.
But the longer the war lasts,
the more unstable the situation in Russia gets, and the higher chances of social outburst.
See you tomorrow.