Two years into the Ukraine war, it doesn’t take a maverick military strategist to realize that there’s
no game-changing wonder-weapon that could easily breach the enemy defenses, attrite the enemy,
or render their attacks pointless.
And yet, some types of hardware are capable of changing the battlefield dynamics,
even though it doesn’t mean crushing the enemy.
In the summer of 2022, this role was played by the HIMARS multiple rocket launchers.
A total of 10 to 12 of such systems were easily destroying Russia’s ammo depots close behind
the frontlines.
As a result, despite being outmatched by the Russians in artillery, the Ukrainian army halted
the Russian Donbas offensive.
Although the Russian “war reporters” were anticipating the upcoming capture of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk,
the largest Ukrainian-controlled cities of the Donetsk Region, the Russian army had to relocate
their largest depots further away from the combat action and learn how to intercept HIMARS-launched rockets.
Now, it’s Russia that figured out a weapon capable of making a significant impact on the battlefield.
Weighing between 250 kilos and 1.5 metric tons, the KABs (guided air-to-surface glide bombs)
can destroy almost any facility, including underground bunkers.
These munitions helped the Russian army capture Avdiivka.
The extensive use of KABs essentially reactivated Russia’s airpower, boosting its battlefield impact.
It helps the Russian high command plan further advancement. During the Bakhmut meatgrinder,
Russia was advancing thanks to the inmate-manned assault troops.
This time, the troops are propped up by devastating airstrikes.
Today, we’ll talk about the guided glide bombs changing the course of this war
and putting Russian aviation back on the map.
Aerial Warfare
In the lead-up to the invasion, the Russian Armed Forces had a considerable edge over
the Ukrainian army, with a wider battle tank fleet, a powerful navy,
and the airpower that was a cut above its Ukrainian counterpart.
Two years into the war, it’s clear that the winning side will be the one with air supremacy.
Understandably, though, the Russian army failed to play its trump cards.
As soon as the Russian fighter jets and helicopters breached Ukraine’s airspace,
they became a legit target for the powerful air defense systems that weren't disabled by the Russians.
Despite the overload, like multiple simultaneous targets and missile strikes,
the air defense systems were efficient in shooting down the Russian jets.
Two to three weeks into combat action, it became clear: if things were to proceed the way
they’d been playing out, the Russian Aerospace Force would lose its combat effectiveness.
That’s when the aviation was ordered to leave the Ukrainian airspace, barring Mariupol.
Mariupol was encircled by the Russian assault troops, while Ukraine couldn’t protect the city
with its air defense shield.
The Russian aviation began to raze the city. Huge aerial bombs were being dropped on residential blocks.
A strike delivered on the local drama theater despite the word “children’ written
on the ground will become the ominous symbol of this war.
On top of civilian buildings, aerial bombs were used to destroy any facilities
that could house Ukrainian servicemembers.
Airstrikes obliterated concrete factory shops and even reached underground bunkers.
In the end, the Mariupol garrison was forced to surrender.
But because of the air defense cover, elsewhere the Russian aviation only used precision strikes.
To dodge radar detection and rocket hits, the aircraft and helicopters followed a simple tactic.
They first approached the battlefield at high speeds and super-low altitudes as close
as possible and then swiftly climbed to 600–700 feet, launched a missile, and immediately flew away.
Airstrikes delivered at low altitudes were inaccurate and inefficient.
But they served as an important morale-booster for the infantry hiding in the trenches.
It all changed about a year ago.
In March 2023, the Russian military found a way of delivering high-altitude precision strikes outside
of the Ukrainian air defense range.
In doing so, they turned the old Soviet high-explosive incendiary bombs into precision-guided bombs
capable of hitting targets from 40 to 50 km away (KABs).
These old “dumb bombs” are now equipped with the direct attack munition guidance kits.
Those were developed before the war, but apparently entered mass production in late 2022.
By March 2023, they were already being used extensively.
Already at that point, the Ukrainian military viewed them as a major threat.
According to Western media, Russia is now dropping more than 100 such bombs daily.
The deployment rate peaked in February 2024 with devastating consequences.
A dozen strikes can destroy entire fortified districts with dugouts, bunkers, and barracks.
The resulting wreck becomes an easier prey for the infantry.
True, if the troops hole up within the thick walls of a factory that has underground facilities,
they’ll be able to hold on to it for quite a while. But in the end, the bombs will anyway breach the defenses.
This tactic helped the Russian troops capture Avdiivka.
The guided glide bombs help the Russian attack the Ukrainian positions both in urban settings
and in the open fields. The frontlines aren’t made up of a maze of trenches with soldiers posted 30
to 60 feet apart. Such positions only serve to cover strategically less important sections of the front.
The backbone of the Ukrainian defensive effort consists of a series of platoon and company strong points,
with the former manned by up to 10 troops and the latter by up to 100.
Thes strong points have dugouts where the servicemembers dwell, eat, even bathe,
and take turns as on-duty lookouts.
They engage in combat whenever they have to defend or attack.
However, sandwiched between these strong points are worse-fortified positions
with a scarce and shallow trench system.
If you keep assaulting the same location for months, at one point,
you’ll figure out the enemy's strong points and secondary positions.
If you manage to take a couple of strong points, you’ll push the frontline forward.
Your opponent will have to either summon backup to try and retake the position or retreat
and try to rig up a new fortified network while holding back the offensive.
If you’ve got some resources left after a successful assault operation,
you’ll move on with the offensive as long as your opponent has no fortified positions
and is, therefore, more vulnerable.
Several KAB strikes can level an entire platoon's strong point.
These bombs are also capable of ravaging the enemy supply lines,
like blowing up important bridges near the battlefield, a camouflaged buildup of battle tanks sitting idle,
a fuel depot, etc.
It doesn’t take a military expert to realize that the consistent use of guided glide bombs
on a narrow strip of the battlefield promotes the offensive.
Ukraine’s Possible Steps
Meanwhile, the Russian army is on a tear.
Following the capture of Avdiivka, it has been dropping its guided glide bombs even beyond the frontlines.
This footage shows the bomb striking a thermal power station in Kurakhove,
12 km away from the frontlines.
According to Russian war reporters, this small town may be the army’s next target.
If they succeed in capturing it, the Russian high command will have two options.
One is turning south and attacking Vuhledar, a major Ukrainian foothold at the focal point
of the southern and eastern fronts.
Alternatively, they can head toward the Dnipropetrovsk Region and extend
the frontlines into the sixth Ukrainian province.
So far, Ukraine has a hard time countering the KABs, which can’t be intercepted.
This can be achieved by the use of F-16s.
The exact number of these jets in the upcoming aid package and their model specs aren’t disclosed.
But Volodymyr Zelenskyy hopes the new-generation fighter jets
will be able to bring down the Russian strike aircraft.
The Ukrainian army has many KABs at its disposal.
They use a couple of those to counter a hundred Russian strikes.
Last year, Ukraine was using the U.S. JDAM bombs, but further supplies,
including artillery shells, are being halted by House Republicans.
But the new Russian tactic has a flip side.
By the looks of it, to somehow counter the recent strikes,
the Ukrainian army has moved its state-of-the-art air defense systems closer to the frontlines.
According to the Ukrainian authorities, they’ve shot down 15 Russian jets over the past 15 days.
But this figure hasn’t been confirmed by independent analysts.
What they did confirm, though, was the loss of two Russian Beriev A-50 planes,
which are super-important airborne early warning aircraft.
Its long-distance reconnaissance instruments can identify targets both on the battlefield
and in the rear hundreds of kilometers away.
The on-board crew is tasked with coordinating and planning massive airstrikes.
According to British military intelligence, Russia still has seven such aircraft left.
By losing two A-50s, the Russian aviation has lost a pair of all-seeing eyes,
which has taken a toll on its recon capabilities.
Sergei Chemezov, the CEO of Rostec, has announced plans to relaunch the production of A-50 aircraft.
His statements must’ve been taken seriously, as on the night of Mar. 9, Ukrainian UAVs approached Taganrog,
potentially targeting the Beriev Aircraft Corp. facilities manufacturing the A-50s.
Last month, the British analysts said it was impossible to predict Russia’s capacity
to afford to lose aircraft and pilots.
According to their estimates, Russia has lost 160 military jet and helicopter crew members,
which has affected the combat effectiveness of the Russian Aerospace Force.
In the meantime, Western media cites the Ukrainian military that’s convinced
that Russia won’t be deterred by the loss of seasoned pilots and aircraft.
They believe it will be using its airpower in the same meatgrinder-style fashion
that was conducive to the capture of Avdiivka.
The deployment of F-16 fighter jets may tip the scale in Ukraine’s favor.
If the aid package is going to include aircraft equipped with advanced radars and long-range missiles,
Russia may not be able to use its current guided glide bombs.
To dodge the F-16s, Russian pilots will have to steer further away from the frontlines.
But for the large bombs to reach the battlefield, they’ll need to be fitted with jet engines
and fuel tanks, effectively turning them into missiles.
Technically, it’s feasible. But if that’s the case, these guided bombs will no longer have
the advantage of a low price tag. Dropping Soviet-era bombs, which Russia has plenty of, is one thing.
But retrofitting them is a whole different ballgame.
Using one such missile to strike another small town in a bid to help the ground troops advance
several dozen feet amidst the urban rubble may turn out to be too costly.
It’s hard to tell how many guided bombs and jets is going to be included in the aid package.
But one thing is clear. If the G.O.P. are going to lift their ban and proper military aid is going
to be sent on a regular basis, the same guided glide missiles may end up striking the Russian troops.
We’ll keep you updated on further developments both on the ground and in the air.
See you tomorrow!