As we were preparing this video, a war broke out in Israel.
We'll follow through with a detailed analysis later today or tomorrow morning.
The November 2024 U.S. presidential campaign has been underway for several months now.
One of the key stages in the race, the primaries that’ll result in the presidential nominations, is in full swing.
Let’s figure out who is running both for the Democrats and the Republicans and assess their odds.
Besides, we’ll discuss how the real democracy works and how a presidential hopeful
can be charged in four criminal cases.
Unprecedented things first.
The current Oval Office contender and former president is about to be tried in court
as Donald Trump has been charged in four criminal cases.
Importantly, the charges brought against Trump don’t appear to be politically motivated.
He isn’t being accused of excessive spending or some abstract extremism.
Instead, the charges include keeping classified documents after leaving the office,
attempted electoral fraud, and even sloppy accounting.
These are starkly different charges brought by different prosecutors, state-level or federal,
from different parts of the country.
On top of that, on Sept. 26, Trump was found guilty in a civil fraud trial.
Despite the off-the-charts pressure, Trump isn’t just a big fixture in the primaries’ polls.
Most likely, he’s a frontrunner. But he’s facing some competition.
G.O.P. PRIMARIES
Who else but Trump? Spoiler alert: the answer may be no one.
The G.O.P. polls place Trump at over 50% of the vote, while his closest rivals clock in at around 10%.
However, when the primary vote starts, things may change drastically.
The primaries take place on a state-by-state basis. Sometimes, five states hold their primaries at once.
It’ll take several months to conclude.
Although the exact schedule and order aren’t set in stone, there’s one tradition
that’s been observed for a long time.
The primaries kick off in Iowa followed by New Hampshire.
Should Trump suddenly lose in an early state, this can put a dent in his favorability figures.
Meanwhile, Trump is so self-assured, he didn’t even bother to take part
in the first G.O.P. nomination debate in August.
Instead, he agreed to an interview with the former Fox News host, Tucker Carlson.
However, it was only posted to Twitter (X).
Trump’s Republican opponents find themselves in a tough sport as they need to weigh
in on his courtroom processes.
Which is a difficult thing to address since Trump is hands down the most popular G.O.P. pol.
Consequently, if they try and milk his trials by slamming him, chances are, support
for them may drop within the party.
That’s why they avoid citing his guilt.
Some suggest waiting for the trial to end.
Others openly state that Trump is innocent
and that the controversy is politically motivated and stirred by wily Dems.
Even though none of Trump’s rivals are polling at over 10%, four key candidates have emerged.
Opponent #1. Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida.
He won his re-election in a landslide gubernatorial race that saw him outscore his rival by a whopping 20%.
It was an unusual result for Florida that was won by the Democratic President Obama a mere 11 years ago.
DeSantis rose to national fame in the wake of his COVID crusade when he railed against COVID restrictions.
He opposed lockdowns, mandatory face coverings, and other preventive steps.
That won him support from the conservative crowd that viewed any COVID measures
as a violation of freedoms and COVID itself as a myth and a result of collusion.
DeSantis also began challenging some of the “woke” liberal values as he endorsed the law
that barred Floridian schools from conducting lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity.
In a further move, Ron DeSantis signed two anti-abortion bills into law.
First, abortion was banned 15 weeks into the pregnancy. Then that number was whittled down to six.
Both bans have yet to enter into legal force as those were instantly challenged in court.
It’s a potentially big scoop of points for DeSantis anyway since opposing LGBTQ+ and abortions shows
his allegiance to conservative causes and willingness to counter wild liberalism.
Long story short, DeSantis often cites a track record as governor and prides himself
on turning Florida into a conservative paradise with zero abortions and no LGBTQ+ agenda.
Notably, DeSantis made the overall right call as cultural wars are now a big part of current American politics.
Did it work, though? Initially, it did. DeSantis was regarded as Trump’s biggest rival.
In early 2023, Trump never polled at more than 10% up on the governor.
A long-distance race tends to shrink such numbers. But not this time.
As the campaign is unfolding, Trump has seen his numbers grow.
Presently, DeSantis is down to a measly 10% and on par with the rest of the field.
Media have already reported DeSantis is looking to reignite his bid, alter his strategy,
and come up with something else, but to no avail.
As with the other candidates, his ratings can only be boosted by an early win
Opponent #2. Vivek Ramaswamy, a political wild card that has seemingly
jumped into the picture out of nowhere.
That being said, polls have seen him leap from 4% to 10% between July and September,
catching up with the heavy-hitting DeSantis.
Ramaswamy is only 38 years old, which is quite young for a presidential hopeful.
Professionally, he’s a businessperson and almost a billionaire.
A young and successful entrepreneur from outside of the system
must be advocating some ingenious and radical ideas, right?
Well, radical yes, ingenious no. Ramaswamy proposes raising the voting age from 18 to 25.
Like, inexperienced 18-year-olds can’t make sense of politics. Want to expedite your eligibility?
Join the army or work as a firefighter.
Besides, Ramaswamy calls for the abolition of the U.S. Department of Education, the FBI, and the IRS.
According to him, these are redundant agencies the government can do without.
In addition, Ramaswamy is a big-time conspiracy theorist.
He questioned the feds being on board the ill-fated planes on 9/11.
When he was grilled for those remarks, Ramaswamy denied ever saying this,
even though those statements were audiotaped.
Not least of all, of course, Ramaswamy is fighting the woke ideology with its transgender rights
and abortion agenda as well as the “LGBTQ+ cult.”
This stance appeals to far-right fellow Republicans.
At the debate, other candidates torched Ramaswamy for the lack of government experience
and vague foreign policy takes.
Like, he lambastes Israel, reviles Iran, and excoriates everybody else down the line.
Like, let’s clam up and stay away from the international scene.
That being said, the August debates saw Ramaswamy putting together a decent performance.
The voters got to know the candidate as a respectable contender at least for Ron DeSantis.
Opponent #3. Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.
Haley’s strategy has been moderate so far.
She’s pitching her experience working with the government structures and avoiding radical takes.
She can hurl some jabs at Trump, only to praise herself for being proud to be part of his administration.
As the former ambassador to the U.N., she puts a premium on her foreign policy expertise.
Naturally, she’s roasting Biden for underestimating the threat coming from Iran and other enemies of the U.S.
Even though Haley did fairly well at the debate, her ratings are vacillating at around 5%.
Finally, opponent #4. Mike Pence, Vice President under Donald Trump.
His four-year stint as Trump’s vice president has landed him in murky waters.
On the one hand, he has to heap praise on Trump as his former boss.
On the other, he criticizes Trump as his current rival.
Pence’s role in the events leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol attack and the happenings
of the fateful day is now in the spotlight.
Back then, Trump was trying to convince Mike Pence to intervene in the counting
of pro-Biden Electoral College votes and thus overturn the election results.
A vice president is allegedly entitled to such a ceremonial role,
but exercising it would mean going against the democracy.
Pence declined to meddle in the vote count, which led to him falling from grace with Trump supporters.
On the other hand, other individuals from across the political spectrum lauded him for doing that.
The debate moderators quizzed the candidates on their views on Mike Pence’s call to ignore Trump’s demand.
All of them agreed that it was the right thing to do and that the Constitution overshadows one guy’s whims.
But the way things stand, Mike Pence’s odds of winning the nomination are slim.
There are other candidates that aren’t worth much of a mention since they’re polling
at a couple percentage points, including the former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie,
the former Governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson, the only Black Republican senator Tim Scott, and others.
Their chances to go head-to-head with the Democratic nominee are vanishingly low.
The list of candidates will be winnowed out going forward.
Some may pull out of the race even before the polling starts in the early states
if they refuse to fight the long odds or simply run out of campaign funds.
Some will call it a campaign following the clunker in the Iowa or New Hampshire vote.
Others will choke after Super Tuesday when the largest number of U.S. states hold primary elections.
By March, there will have been two to three big-time contenders.
However, should Trump retain his blowout lead and win the early states,
other candidates may just withdraw their bids.
In this case, the nomination will emerge sooner.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
With the G.O.P. field out of the way, who will be the likeliest opponent
to the Republican favorite Donald Trump?
Who’s going to win the Democratic nomination?
Unsurprisingly, President Joe Biden will be seeking re-election.
Notably, during the 2020 campaign, Biden was contemplating the option
to leave the office come the end of his first term.
In all fairness, though, he never vowed to do so.
In April 2023, Biden announced his bid with current vice president Kamala Harris as his running mate.
Will it secure the Dem nomination? What about the Democratic proceedings?
Officially, the primaries are a must.
Except whenever the incumbent is eyeing re-election, he rarely faces fierce competition.
At the end of the day, the president isn’t just the nation’s topmost political figurehead.
They’re the most influential pol in their party.
Running against them involves political risks whether you’re a governor, a senator,
or a member of the U.S. Congress.
Let alone a government secretary appointed by the president and reporting to the incumbent.
It doesn’t make a lot of sense.
The 20th century saw instances of serious contenders challenging the current president for the nomination.
Except none of them ever beat the incumbent while creating a mess for the party.
Moreover, each president to have faced tough competition
at the primary elections ended up losing the subsequent presidential race.
In 1976, President Gerald Ford (Rep.) was opposed by the-then Governor of California Ronald Reagan.
Ford pipped him for the win, only to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter.
Four years later, Carter squared off against Senator Ted Kennedy,
only to be steamrolled by Reagan come the big day.
In 1992, President George H. W. Bush met the same fate.
So, challenging the president from within the party means foiling the party’s odds.
Technically, Biden is now facing the opposition from the famous individual:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., often referred to as simply RFK Jr.
He’s JFK’s nephew.
The trouble is, RFK Jr. is mostly known as a conspiracy theorist and an anti-vaxxer.
His anti-vaccine crusade predated COVID as he was spreading the scientifically lame claim
whereby vaccines lead to the development of the autism spectrum disorder.
At the outbreak of the pandemic, RFK Jr. promoted the anti-vax stance.
He then berated the Biden administration. Current polls have RFK Jr. at around 10% vs. Biden’s 60% to 70%.
The former is largely endorsed by far-right media personalities, including Alex Jones and Tucker Carlson.
All things considered, RFK Jr. isn’t posing a serious threat.
His candidacy isn’t supported both by Democratic voters and by the Kennedy clan.
There’s one undeniable problem with Biden.
His age. On Election Day, he’ll be almost 82, and as indicated by a slew of video footage, the age is showing.
There’s a possibility of Biden pulling out for health considerations mid-race or even, God forbid, dying.
In case he passes away, he’ll be succeeded by VP Kamala Harris.
She’s likely to replace him in the presidential bid as well. She doesn’t boast record-high ratings, though.
Once Biden won the presidency, she opted to stay out of the public eye.
Some reports even claim she’s not happy about her job.
In hypothetical matchups with Harris in lieu of Biden, the Dems are losing the presidential race.
Therefore, Biden’s good health and incumbency are beneficial for the party.
PROJECTIONS
Finally, let’s discuss the election itself. The biggest is who is going to come out on top.
I’m in no position here to offer a forecast.
There are polls that are pitting Biden against Trump, Biden against DeSantis, and Biden against Ramaswamy.
Biden and Trump make for an even-steven race,
whereas other Republicans have a slight edge over the incumbent.
One thing we should bear in mind when mulling over the U.S. election is that it’s still over a year away.
This period will be marked by a lot of controversy and incidents.
In the U.S., they’re talking about an October surprise, a news event that occurs in the run-up
to the big day that sways the election odds.
It may happen in 2024.
The electoral procedure is as follows.
Between early 2024 and the early summer, each state holds a primary election.
As it progresses, candidates are earning delegates’ votes. Whoever hits the 50% mark gets the party’s nod.
The primaries will culminate in both parties’ conventions that will clinch the nomination.
This will mark the start of the election campaign that’ll end in November 2024.
The second noteworthy thing in this conversation is the presidential election mechanics.
Candidates aren’t vying for people’s votes nationwide. Instead, they’re looking to score wins in separate states.
In practice, it works as follows.
If you’re even one vote up on your opponent in a state, you rack up the entirety of Electoral College votes.
That’s why a Republican hopeful needn’t be busting their chops campaigning
in the predominantly Democratic-leaning California.
The odds of beating your Democratic rival there are super slim.
You’ll be simply blanked.
The same is true of a Democrat fighting for the Oklahoma votes
with little chance of trumping the G.O.P. nominee.
So, instead of fighting for their opponent’s states, the candidates focus on winning the swing states
with roughly equal shares of the population backing the two parties and both candidates having a shot.
It’s too early to speculate who’s likely to come out victorious.
Various models, like the one on the FiveThirtyEight website,
will use public surveys and demographic-related stats as of the next summer to project the outcome.
However, no projection can guarantee 100% certainty.
The thing is, sustainable democracies have unpredictable elections.
That’s why we’ll be keeping an eye on the U.S. campaign trail for quite a long while.
In closing, here's a reminder for you.
You can attend my live event if you're currently in Europe, the U.K., or Israel.
Follow the link in the description to check out the schedule and get your ticket.
See you tomorrow!