Remarkably, people have recently been lining up to put their signatures and endorse
candidate Boris Nadezhdin whose campaign was widely treated as a joke merely days ago.
This is an important indicator.
The candidate and his odds of succeeding have nothing to do with it.
It’s important for us as independent Russian politicians overwhelmingly living abroad.
By the likes of it, we underestimated the potential of Russian people
largely airbrushed by the polls, which only show that 5% to 10% of the loyal crowd
happy with answering their questions have become less vocal in their pro-war stance.
Perhaps we’d better look at people’s actions than their words.
It may well turn out that our public isn’t at all suicidally apathetic.
In order to unpack it all,
let me start with an undeniable fact that encapsulates the essence of real Russia.
Before we start, let me remind you that I’m having a live gig in Riga tomorrow
followed by a Monday gig in Tallinn and then Zürich, Milan, and Tel Aviv.
Follow the link in the description to grab your ticket.
College students and refugees can buy one for €10.
Let’s roll.
In 2022, people were constantly discussing the Russians’ real take on this war.
Like, are there really so many volunteers trumpeted by the propaganda?
Has the country really devolved into an old-school fascist state
with plenty of rah-rah enthusiasts?
But on Sept. 21, that discussion was snapped as hordes of people,
estimated between 700,000 and 1 million, fled the country
and flocked to Yerevan, Tbilisi, Istanbul, Bishkek, Dubai, Tel Aviv,
and wherever else they could reach.
We know for a fact that the mobilization sparked the most numerous
one-time exodus in Russia’s history.
In three weeks’ time, the number of people that vacated the country
was that of a population of Seattle or even Dallas.
Emigration means more than just putting your John Hancock,
casting a ballot, or even joining a protest rally.
It’s a step that not even those dodging air bombs often venture.
Most people from impoverished rural Russia will live there forever,
even if a ticket to Moscow or St. Petersburg would cost them $5.
The so-called mass emigration of African or Middle Eastern people
to Europe or Latin Americans to the U.S. totals several percentage points at best.
Even if a country is war-torn or ravaged with hunger, it’s no more
than a couple dozen percentage points anyway.
That’s why when many people suddenly decide to radically change their lives
by fleeing headlong without ever realizing what kind of future they’re facing,
all of the polls findings can be shredded.
For every one who shelled out for a heavily overpriced flight to Tajikistan,
there must be at least a dozen more people who would’ve done the same
if they hadn’t been hamstrung by a variety of circumstances that prevented them from
packing up a lifetime of experiences and aspirations and snagging a one-way ticket.
If a million people are so preoccupied with what’s going on,
they are heading for the hills as if they were vacating a burning building,
there are dozens of millions that must be equally unhappy.
But that’s somehow overlooked by the polls.
We can only guess the exact numbers,
going by something tangentially related to it.
For example, when Yerevan suddenly makes a top-10 cities
with the highest median rent alongside NYC.
The same goes for what happened with Yekaterina Duntsova.
A small-town journalist whose political resume was limited to a stint as a municipal deputy
and who was a total stranger at the national level suddenly announced a presidential bid
without having any resources—political, financial, media, or otherwise.
Yet, instead of sinking into the election campaign oblivion as a ludicrous announcement,
it grew into a big-time news story, so much so, in fact, that even
the Central Election Commission barred her from the endorsements.
They acted like they felt their permission would eventually get her elected.
Clearly, Duntsova would’ve never run at any of the previous elections, not even in 2018.
Her candidacy would’ve been dismissed by many
as either a joke or a Kremlin stooge project.
But these days, many people are apparently seeking change, something
that a lot of others, including pollsters, blatantly overlook.
But once someone pops a peephole and there’s the minutest glimmer of hope,
people will use it to channel their energy.
HEADCOUNT
Even in the already harsh period of the mid-to-late 2010s,
there were ways to engage in civic activism.
You couldn’t join a rally to protest banning candidates off the Moscow City Duma ballot,
but you could rail against the housing renovation program,
deforestation, landfills, or Governor Furgal.
You could sound off on hot-button issues on the Echo of Moscow radio station,
join Team Navalny, get elected to a municipal assembly,
or even run for a State Duma seat.
You could speak out on social media
(barring state-controlled platforms), like Facebook, Telegram,
Instagram, or Twitter, and feel safe
Even establishment politicians like Valery Rashkin from the Communist Party
could sometimes oppose the government.
Independent politicians in Russia were silenced on federal media
ranging from cable TV to Yandex.News.
But they were thriving wherever they weren’t blocked.
People learned how to join forces and work toward common goals.
They learned how to donate and collect donations.
They learned how to vote, participate, campaign, and work as election monitors.
Politics came a long way from being a hardened crook’s playground.
As soon as you announced a grassroots political gig,
you had no shortage of staffers, activists, and sponsors.
And that was quite a collection of people.
Unless you had a McKinsey analyst and a Yandex developer working for you,
you were considered a wrong kind of liberal.
We had no problem identifying what mattered to the Russian people
and telling it from the propaganda narratives.
If the Moscow housing renovation program was railed against,
social media were abuzz with scathing criticism.
The same went for the landfill protests that were debated all over the place.
You didn’t have to wonder if the person you were talking with shared your views.
Their social media page with all of its follows and reposts did the job.
We know for a fact there were many like-minded people.
Like, 128 million views garnered by Team Navalny’s investigation
into Putin’s palace meant it was a hot topic.
True, as time went by, more and more people were clubbed
and detained at the protest rallies.
But people would instantly switch to something else,
like raising millions for compensation payouts.
On the one hand, now that any protest has been branded as hostile,
we have no means of seeing how many people oppose
the policies or assess the scope of public discussion.
There are no safe platforms anymore.
There’s no safe form of activism any longer.
That’s why politicians, journalists, and pundits alike are now only
guesstimating the real sentiment of the Russian public
Whenever someone in Russia says no one seems to mind the ongoing war,
they may be right.
But does anyone hear this individual’s voice?
Can they bring it up even among their closest colleagues?
Do they crank down the volume when watching Katz’s videos so that
they aren’t audible to the next-door neighbors?
Who knows that this guy is against the war?
What if every single person in the pub they frequent are against the war
but shy away from raising their voice, thinking everyone else embraces it?
That’s natural behavior, and the only one that’s safe at that.
Everyone’s job is to stay safe and survive the system
without getting their fingers in its slicer.
But the palpable side effect is that we don’t know who qualifies
as “us” and who else thinks the way we do.
The real sentiment is only a matter of guesswork.
On the other hand, all this forced abnormality and the lack of political discussion
as well as of avenues for civic engagement do is spur the need to make it public.
Once people have a shot at a safe move, they capitalize on it big time.
Clearly, Boris Nadezhdin isn’t your dream candidate.
We don’t mean him as a human being but him as a presidential hopeful.
He’s not the kind of guy who can inspire stadiums or has
a large team of hardcore supporters.
He seems to symbolize everything the 1990s stood for or were associated with.
He’s got more pluck than Grigory Yavlinsky.
And yet, Boris Nadezhdin is the liberal politician from 30 years back, and it shows.
That’s exactly what makes Nadezhdin’s bid a perfect illustration for our today’s topic.
The crowds of people waiting in line to put their endorsement signatures
aren’t there because Boris is a world-class spell-binder
or because he’s running a hell of a campaign.
There’s essentially no campaign as of yet. He has no money or resources.
It seems they have yet to print their first campaign leaflet.
All he has is the free help of independent voices like myself
and those who volunteered to help him put together
whatever campaign they can manage.
People are waiting in line to sign up for him, and his staffers
who otherwise wouldn’t be able to collect these signatures because it’s expensive
and hard to organize are now getting these signatures.
People just feel compelled to do it.
They want to endorse a human-like candidate,
which is their only legal way to get together and let the government know
they are there, while they can’t do anything about it.
The Central Election Commission allowed him to launch the endorsement procedure.
So, everyone has a right to sign up for this guy.
And a lot of people are clinging on to this opportunity.
They grab their IDs, head over to his campaign hubs, wait in line,
and fill out the paperwork to be able to say,
amid the war, that they are against Putin.
This is anything but trivial. This level of engagement is out of the ordinary.
It’s not like ticking the box in a booth.
It’s about getting involved in the campaign of someone
whose candidacy became known just a month ago.
If you’re one of those who once participated in an election campaign,
you may think there’s nothing special about it.
You know what? There is.
I can reap my bragging rights.
After my previous video, the number of signatories shot up,
which is indicated by Boris’s regional HQ.
But that’s not how it works in politics.
A politician can’t just urge people to do something out of the blue,
like, get out into the bitter cold and sign up for this guy.
The most a politician can do, and that’s what their role is all about,
is to pick up on the existing sentiment and try to channel it.
CHANNEL THAT ENERGY
In today’s video, I’ve outlined my perception.
Hundreds of thousands of people that have attended the political rallies
over the past decade,
10s of thousands of staffers, volunteers, activists, and monitors,
millions-strong audiences of our channels, Echo of Moscow, and Meduza,
countless of reposters and donors—the entire civil society
that’s braved the government crackdown is still out there.
Many have left the country, but many more have stayed.
When TV Rain, FBK, Meduza, other media outlets, and ourselves
initiated a solidarity marathon to raise money for political prisoners, we raised
more than $300,000 in one day, an unheard-of all-time
high for Russian political cause donations.
The optimistic goal was $45,000.
People got excited to be able to team up and donate for a noble cause.
People jump at every opportunity to engage in common activities
that won’t be persecuted.
And there are many more such people than we can think of
or than the official polls suggest.
We can’t expect these individuals to speak out—they’ll be busted right away.
But their actions speak volumes,
whether it’s when the government furnishes them with a draft notice or when
they’re eager to partake in something that won’t be punished.
Nadezhdin’s odds as a candidate are slim, to be honest.
Whether his staffers will collect the required number of endorsement signatures
and whether his name will be put on the ballot, no one knows.
No one can influence it, either. But there’s no reason for frustrations.
There’s one thing we know for a certainty: civic apathy isn’t a thing in Russia.
People are craving a chance to act and tap into their huge potential.
The opportunities that would’ve easily been blown a while ago
will now be milked like there’s no tomorrow.
Whether or not this guy’s name will be put on the ballot, it’s our job,
the politicians’ job, to stop thinking we’re only addressing a tiny minority
and start tapping into this dormant civic energy
The key thing is to leverage it.
Boris Nadezhdin keeps getting the endorsement signatures,
but they are far from enough.
There are many signatures coming from the Russian regions.
Please show up at Nadezhdin’s campaign offices wherever you are.
If you aren’t registered in Moscow or St. Petersburg,
make sure to come and sign up anyway.
These “regional” signatures may turn out to be crucial.
You can be registered anywhere, but if you live in Moscow, turn up at his Moscow office.
Find Nadezhdin’s campaign offices by following the link in the description.
See you tomorrow!