Vladimir Putin's visit to Mariupol today actually aligns perfectly with the hot topic of recent days:
the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Putin. These events together fit nicely the pre-election context.
What's the direct result of the ICC warrant? A large part of the world is now off-limits or almost off-limits to Vladimir Putin.
Moreover, today, the German Minister of Justice clearly confirmed just this.
Yes, if Putin sets foot in Germany, he'll wind up arrested. According to German law,
he no longer enjoys the immunity as a head of state, inviting handcuffs to his wrists.
This is a serious change in status, and more significantly, Putin can't do anything about it.
What would Putin do if he were a charismatic leader, like, say, Trump?
A true leader? He would instantly board his presidential plane, the Russian version of U.S. Air Force One,
and jet over to a place like Hungary — to his friend Orban.
Not to Tajikistan, which wouldn't impress anyone.
He would not only be defying the ICC's jurisdiction but also boldly entering the EU and a NATO country.
Like, what in goodness name could you do to me? Down my plane?
Would you dare? No one would detain me anywhere because I’m the emperor. Who cares about The Hague or their judges?
That's what Joe Biden did in late February. He simply took a flight to Kyiv.
To the city Putin wanted to seize a mere year before the visit. To the city that's targeted by Russian missiles
and Iranian drones almost daily.
And that's where Biden went, giving the Russian side a mere couple of hours' notice.
As if to say, there's now a no-fly zone and peaceful territory around me, you hear me?
I'm coming to support our ally, and you'll just watch and suck it up because fighting NATO
is something you only know how to do on TV.
That's a powerful political move, undeniably showing who's in charge.
Who can act as they see fit and whose propagandists will later be whining on live TV.
But we're well aware of Putin's nature. We know his cowardice and paranoia.
He watches as his fellow autocrats — Orban, Vucic, and Erdogan — pledge loyalty to him today,
but tomorrow they're sending weapons to Kyiv or joining the sanctions.
Deep down, he believes that if a call comes from Washington to Budapest and a hoarse, elderly voice says:
"Don’t fool around, Victor," then Victor will do as he's told.
We're not discussing how realistic this whole thing is, but there's no doubt that Putin can't trust any of these smooth ralkers.
They siphon off his cheap gas, only to give Grad shells to Ukraine later.
He knows they'll be the first to turn him in, and then they’ll shrug it off, saying they had no choice.
We’re inclined to think they probably won't, but rational arguments don't work for a paranoid leader who genuinely
believes in his own geopolitical fantasies and that these governments are just his European puppets.
As tempting as it might be to make a bold political move by visiting somewhere to show the world and the Hague their place
So, a court can issue an arrest warrant for Putin himself, and he has nothing to counter it.
It turns out that a court can limit Putin's movement, and he has to abide by these restrictions, adjusting his life accordingly.
And what about everyone else? Those who rank lower than Putin? How vulnerable are they?
Do you remember the infamous “Dima Yakovlev Act” that banned Americans from adopting Russian orphans?
It was in response to the "Magnitsky Act."
The act didn't prohibit trade between the U.S. and Russia and didn't target Putin's inner circle.
Instead, it imposed restrictions on 60 individuals involved in the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky,
the highest-ranking of whom was, by that time, a former Deputy Minister of the Interior.
To give you an idea of their standing in the power hierarchy: out of these 60 people,
only six have Wikipedia articles about them, describing them solely as being complicit in the case.
The Magnitsky list featured relatively unknown individuals.
The adoption of the “Dima Yakovlev Act” was one of the most ignominious events of the early 2010s
and marked the beginning of Russia's downfall.
But the message was clear: you can't impose your jurisdiction on our people, any of our people.
Even if they're insignificant figures like random tax inspectors or prison warden deputies,
it’s up to us to punish or reward them as we please.
You can't tell us what to do; it’s us who have sovereignty here.
We'll defend even those bastards, regardless of the repercussions for orphaned children.
Even though it's pretty messed up, it sends a message to Putin's inner circle.
Like, look, we're supporting random nobodies with federal laws, so if anyone tries to mess with you, we'll start a nuclear war.
You're all under the big boss's protection; he'll stand his ground and won't let anyone tear you apart.
Using some pretty extreme methods, it shows the basis for his own legitimacy.
Why am I the ruler? Because I won't let anyone harm you, and there’ll always be pushback. The system will protect itself.
The will of the Russian Emperor will be heard and obeyed, whether they like it or not.
Today, he responds to an order issued for Putin himself with some incoherent mumbling.
Turns out, he has nothing to counter it. There's no conversation partner beyond the Western border.
The restoration of relations with Russia, and even Russia's future, is up for discussion with anyone else, including the opposition,
but not him. Reasonable negotiations are off the table, let alone bold geopolitical moves.
Which brings us to the question of external legitimacy. With 350 days left until the presidential election,
we have a candidate who's being targeted by The Hague.
For the first time in history, Putin's victory might not be recognized by most developed countries.
That's because it's unclear how to acknowledge the victory of a man wanted by the International Criminal Court.
DOMESTIC LEGITIMACY
So we've got the election rolling around in about 350 days, and it seems like the campaign has already kicked off.
Putin's bizarre trip to Mariupol is a clear attempt to tackle one of the biggest challenges
and fix his public image as the "old fart in a bunker."
Russian soldiers are dying by the hundreds daily.
The "special military operation," conceived to last just a few weeks, has turned into the bloodiest war in Europe since WWII
and the most disgraceful one since the Battle of Grozny in early 1995.
And the guy who started this whole mess has set up seventeen layers of security for himself, personal air defense,
never shows up west of Rostov, and talks about gender issues and genderless parents.
It looks extra bad when you compare him to his main opponent, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
who visits his soldiers near Bakhmut, handing out awards despite explosions happening close by.
So, even though it was in the dark of the night and in super weird circumstances, Putin went to Mariupol.
Which tells us that the upcoming election is vital. Putin can't afford to cancel it.
The Kremlin's spin doctors envision all the risks and challenges that have piled up over this last year,
and are trying to sort out the upshots.
Why even have an election with just an incumbent president running as a single candidate?
Why go through these theatrics that even loyal supporters can't deny are staged?
The point of elections in a system like this isn't to prevail in a competitive fight.
It's about showing that the political machine works and that citizens, at the very least, stay quietly loyal.
Everyone's gotta play their part.
Here’s how it should go: the procedure gets organized, all government levels are involved,
and no one rails against it or messes things up.
Every school principal lets the teachers know they need to show up, and every governor arranges transportation
for utility workers and runs a washing machine giveaway lottery.
Regions notorious for their electoral anomalies report the required 99%,
while others hit the KPIs set by the presidential administration.
People really showed up. Whether it's because their boss told them to or they genuinely wanted to, who cares.
It’s mostly those folks whom Putin wanted to see there, and those who weren’t wanted chose to abstain.
Across the nation, there are more legit ballots for Putin than against him, with some votes stuffed.
The whole process should go without noticeable protests or scandals, all in a festive and happy mood.
There shouldn't be any fuss. Any commotion would mean that the machine is falling apart
and is no longer the well-oiled mechanism it used to be.
Everyone needs to do their part to help this one guy, Putin, politically survive the election.
By doing this, the autocrat tells his elites, “Look, everything's under control, the system is working for me, and the citizens are loyal.
It doesn't matter if they love me. They're loyal enough to play their parts in this show and not protest loudly against the results.”
Whether they show up or not, whether they are enticed or bussed, these citizens won't be protesting loudly.
Many believe that Putin will invoke martial law to cancel the election.
Canceling the election is not what it’s often perceived as. It's not a bold move from a confident military leader.
It's an indirect admission of vulnerability, like, “I'm actually no longer certain that the system can handle it.
I’m not sure if I'm in control anymore.
That I can still rely on the silent complacency and pull off the trick that worked so well for me in the past.”
Everyone has their own pair of shoes to fill.
Some are running PMCs and riot police, some are managing billions of dollars,
and some are keeping the financial system afloat.
Meanwhile, someone’s job is to control the political system within the country and provide protection for all these people
beyond its borders.
This is Putin’s role in the Russian system.
The state machinery works for him without asking questions, and foreign leaders see him as Russia's true boss.
They talk to him, and he's their equal. That's why people with financial and military resources follow his orders.
Suppose I'm a general, I have armed people at my disposal, so why can't I kick the old man out of the Kremlin and sub in for him?
Well because the entire top-down power vertical will turn against me, and they’ll be supported by the people.
Because the world will see me as a usurper who has overthrown a legitimate government.
But when you've got obvious issues with external legitimacy and a significant part of the world views you as a criminal,
the importance of the electoral procedures suddenly multiplies. Canceling the election isn't just not an option.
Far from, you need to stage it as convincingly as possible.
After all, if you can't provide protection outside the border and nobody wants to talk to you,
and you can't convincingly show you can still control the situation inside the country, what are you even good for?
What’s the point of having you around? What do you bring to the table besides problems?
Turns out, you're weak. You don't have any real power. The world is spitting on you.
Look how the Germans threaten to arrest you as soon as you step on their soil.
Even inside the country, you can't even do what you could do perfectly just six years ago.
So what makes you more fit for the job than us?
It's clear that Western countries would embrace even the devil himself if he could take you down and stop the war.
And since you've got electoral problems, we won’t have any trouble at home, either.
The system will be just as happy to escape the constant tension.
So Putin no longer has external legitimacy.
That ship has sailed now. A man who has been issued an international warrant for him can’t be a negotiator.
He can’t protect his own system and his people, he can’t pull them out of the external isolation that he himself landed them in.
Which makes the matter of domestic legitimacy all the more important, since it has become his only support now.
And it has also become way more difficult to maintain, as he now needs to convince everyone within his own system
that they really want this walking 70-year-old mess for another six years.
That they agree on not having a leader that the West accepts and willing to negotiate with, for another six years.
So, we won't just see zero hints of canceling the elections – over the next year,
we'll be witnessing the most intense campaign to restore Putin's image that's been battered by a year of war.
Putin can't protect the system outside of Russia anymore, not even when it comes to PR.
But he's gotta prove to everyone that he's still in control, at least within the country.
He can't be a proper military leader like Zelenskyy, but his trip to Mariupol speaks volumes.
It's crucial to ditch that image of a coward hiding deep in a bunker. And this is only the beginning.
The further we go, the more spectacular stunts Putin will be pulling off. There's no turning back now.
Otherwise, if it turns out that Western politicians prefer to talk to Mikhail Khodorkovsky,
the club-wielders are under Viktor Zolotov's command, and everyone else has some slice of legitimacy or authority,
but Putin's got nada, then what's his role in this whole system? Where does he fit?
See you tomorrow!