As we’re waiting for Alexei Navalny’s funeral and can’t get enough
of the overall gloom and doom, Putin’s ritualistic address to the Federal Assembly
doesn’t sound like something worth talking about.
True, a fair portion of his speech is his yakking on about traditional values
and pontificating about reproduction, as if people were a bunch of cattle.
That’s nothing new.
But considering the format, the target audience, and the address
being an election speech outlining plans for the coming six years,
it contained something noteworthy.
Let’s talk about it.
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Putin’s address was a display of self-contradictory messaging.
Putin brings up the wicked West that embroiled the USSR
into the arms race, which proved to be the latter’s undoing.
We, on the other hand, will be wise to avoid those mistakes.
But seconds later, the president brags about the fortune
that has been invested into the military-industrial complex.
Our current imperative is to bolster our defence industry in such a way as to
increase our country’s scientific, technological and industrial capabilities.
We must allocate resources as judiciously as possible,
fostering an efficient economy for the Armed Forces, and maximising
the return on each ruble of our defence spending.
It is crucial for us to expedite the resolution of social, demographic,
infrastructural and other problems we face while simultaneously advancing
the quality of equipment for the Russian Army and Navy.
He calls Russia the bedrock of traditional values
while bemoaning the waning birth rates.
Which means, over the past decade, this preaching of hyperactive
reproduction has been falling on deaf ears.
True, today birth rates are declining in Russia and many other countries.
Demographers say that this challenge is related to changes in social,
economic, technological, cultural and value perceptions throughout the world.
Young people get an education, try to make a career,
and improve their living conditions, leaving children for later.
He cites economic achievements and distributes trainloads of money,
while announcing a spike in personal income tax and corporate tax rates.
Which is preposterous, since an average Russian’s income
isn’t something you can really use for financial gains.
But his idea is clear.
We have no shortage of money, but we’ll try
to find new ways of stocking up on it.
I’m suggesting that you work out new approaches to the overhaul of our fiscal system,
to the fairer distribution of the tax burden toward those
with higher personal and corporate incomes.
And that’s literally every phrase he’s said.
Every quote packs two opposite takes.
Except the live audience should’ve been horrified they’ve heard.
Make no mistake about it: it’s his election platform
that revolves around an endless war.
It doesn’t matter that an attempt to turn the “special operation heroes”
into a new Russian elite and future talent pool comes across as more of a joke.
The system isn’t waging this war to divide
the power and resources with someone else.
They are doing their utmost to make sure the “special operation heroes”
don’t cross the official Russian border on their way back in.
There are no known instances of people who either fought in the war
or worked in the occupied provinces using it as a career accelerator.
And there’s every reason to believe there’ll be none.
Officials can ignore the sloshed “heroes” waving hand grenades,
scaring their fellow residents, raping, and killing.
But no one wants to share assets and power with these “heroes.”
But that’s not the point. It’s about the declaration.
The war is now part of the government system.
War is useful.
It catapults the economy, shapes the new elite, and promotes
the new reliable personnel for the government.
The new norm is that it’s not going to end anytime soon.
No one should hope it’s going to end, let alone wait for it to happen.
That’s how things are going to be.
Putin doesn’t even bother specifying any goals or timeframes.
His address to the Federal Assembly is him
addressing the elites and top-flight bureaucracy.
They’ve been told it’s the way things are and that they
should be pleased by it the way they are just like he is.
He likes it, and so should they.
But it’s glaringly obvious that the majority of those present feel different.
They are waiting for something to happen: the U.S. election, the wear and tear of the E.U.,
or a political crisis in Ukraine, a miracle they hope will happen.
There are enough reserves to cover the military spending for 2024.
The system will get through it.
But then a miracle must happen.
We’ll back down, make a deal with everyone, and get back to normal.
But no, they’re told that the war is the only plan for the coming six years
and that no one should expect any gains or wins.
Waging a war is the only goal.
The attendees all realize that Putin is living in the realm of fantasy
and the war is all about debt.
The public opinion from polls that is deterred by
a dozen of potential charges doesn’t favor the war.
The nominal economic growth is ensured by the budget reserve spending.
The system isn’t happy about what’s going on.
Every day of war means the use of all resources.
The Security Council members may ignore it and exist in history
while thinking they are opposing NATO.
But those who are in charge of real figures and real economy realize
the Russian budget and the Russian government can’t handle a ceaseless war.
The growing clout of law enforcement agencies won’t stop at the persecution
of the current enemies of the people.
The ongoing redistribution of property won’t stop at the regional elites
who are losing industrial facilities.
2024 isn’t the year they can manage, only to get back to normal again.
The pre-election months may well be looked back on with a nostalgic vibe.
Before the election, everyone was supposed to feign normality.
After that, it’s going to be bets off.
True, the new twist on the traditional values opposing
But it’s all immaterial compared to what really matters.
And here’s the catch: Putin doesn’t need this system
unless it’s involved in this war.
The only thing they need is procuring the resources for the war.
The Finance ministry should be looking for money, while the governors
and state-run companies should look for personnel.
The Russian elite will be servicing these goals.
Putin only needs those who can sustain this status quo.
But what if it’s unsustainable?
What if paying fortunes to the military, subsidizing the airlines,
making up for the state-owned companies’ losses, sustaining the ruble,
engaging in import substitution, and creating 100s of thousands of sham jobs is unreal?
What if the new unsavory reality becomes too obvious?
Will the war end? It won’t. Instead, they’ll be looking for scapegoats.
Indeed, if things are all peach and cream, how could they turn sour
if not for the bungling officials that failed to do their jobs?
They failed to procure the money and the personnel or implement
the defense contracts for imaginary spare parts.
On the one hand, it’s a more militaristic-oriented address than last year’s.
On the other hand, militarism isn’t shown as something out of the ordinary
or temporary that’s needed for victory.
It’s pitched as a new way of life.
Like, dear ministers and oligarchs, we’re in this trench forever.
It’s nothing new to us.
We realize that Putin is synonymous with war.
But the attendees waiting for a black swan should’ve been terrified.
It seems to be the first time they’ve been told this is going to last forever,
any breather or endgame isn’t planned by the guy
the sour-faced audience totally depends on.
So again there's a lot to think about.
See you tomorrow!